Swindon vs Grimsby Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
County Ground
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
3.19
Draw
3.79
Away Win
2.06
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Grimsby edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Grimsby slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Grimsby stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Grimsby slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Grimsby have recorded just one win from their last five away outings, while Swindon have secured two victories in their last five home fixtures. Swindon are likely to find the net in four of their last five matches at home, though they have failed to keep a single clean sheet during that same period. Grimsby rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in form and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Grimsby won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 25 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Swindon's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 11-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Grimsby losing run
52%
Swindon yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 11 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Swindon win
Latest market chance 28.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.5% → 28.7%
+0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.4% → 25.6%
+0.2 pts
Grimsby win
Latest market chance 45.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
46.0% → 45.7%
−0.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Swindon
Draw
Grimsby
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SwindonGrimsby

Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
6th
14
Games Played
14
1.36
Points/Game
1.43
1.07
Goals/Game
1.71
1.21
Conceded/Game
1.29
10.4
Shots/Game
16.6
3.3
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Swindon at home (7 matches) vs Grimsby away (7 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.00
1.71
Goals/Game
1.57
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.43
57%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Swindon
Home form
W
D
L
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Grimsby
Away form
D
L
L
D
W
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Swindon Wins
2
Draws
1
Grimsby Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.6
Grimsby4 – 0Swindon
Swindon2 – 2Grimsby
Grimsby0 – 4Swindon
Swindon3 – 1Grimsby
Grimsby2 – 0Swindon
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Swindonvs
Grimsby

Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.90
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.40
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
5/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.7%→Latest 58.5%−1.2 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.7%→Latest 60.9%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?