Salford vs Northampton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Moor Lane
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.58
Draw
3.91
Away Win
5.67
Match Prediction
Data favours
Salford
Salford rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Salford a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Salford stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Salford stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Salford stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Northampton have recorded just one victory in their last five away outings, while Salford remain unbeaten at home with five wins from the same number of matches. Salford have found the net in every one of their last five home matches and have kept three clean sheets during that same period. Salford rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Salford won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 7 January 2023, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Northampton's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Salford's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points, while Northampton's implied win probability has fallen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Salford a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Salford losing run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
15
Salford points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Northampton
Northampton's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Northampton win as less likely than it did 11 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Salford remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Salford win
Latest market chance 57.5%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
56.7% → 57.5%
+0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.6% → 25.2%
+0.6 pts
Northampton win
Latest market chance 17.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
18.7% → 17.3%
−1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Salford
Draw
Northampton
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SalfordNorthampton
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
21st
14
Games Played
13
2.21
Points/Game
1.08
1.79
Goals/Game
0.69
1.07
Conceded/Game
0.77
14.8
Shots/Game
11.5
4.4
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Salford at home (7 matches) vs Northampton away (6 matches)
2.57
Points/Game
1.00
1.29
Goals/Game
0.83
0.57
Conceded/Game
1.00
86%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Salford
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Northampton
Away form
D
L
D
W
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Salford Wins
2
Draws
1
Northampton Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Salford2 – 1Northampton
Northampton0 – 1Salford
Northampton1 – 0Salford
Salford2 – 2Northampton
Salford1 – 2Northampton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Salfordvs
Northampton
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
0.70
0.90
Goals conceded / game
0.80
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
0/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
0/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.7%→Latest 49.0%−3.7 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 48.9%−3.1 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?