Rotherham vs Newport County Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
New York Stadium
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.15
Draw
3.42
Away Win
3.35
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Rotherham
Newport County
Paul Mullin ⚽ (P)
4'
Aaron Nemane (Jayce Fitzgerald) ⚽
12'
Jamie Jellis 🟨
16'
28'
⚽ (P) Harrison Biggins
Paul Mullin 🟨
42'
42'
🟨 Gerard Garner
54'
⚽ Gerard Garner
H. Douglas 🟨
89'
Match Statistics ?
62%
Ball Possession
38%
12
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Goal
4
2
Corner Kicks
2
18
Fouls
16
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Rotherham (3-4-2-1)
J. Eyestone
J. Rafferty
D. Iorfa
H. Douglas
D. Hall
K. Spence
Jayce Fitzgerald
J. Buyabu
A. Nemane
Jamie Jellis
P. Mullin
Newport County (3-4-1-2)
J. Wright
L. Jenkins
K. Cameron
Joe Thomas
C. Norman
M. Dibley-Dias
C. Brennan
Alfie Merritt
M. Adu-Poku
G. Garner
H. Biggins
Player Ratings ?
Rotherham
A. NemaneM8.1
Jayce FitzgeraldM7.1
P. MullinF7.0
Newport County
G. GarnerF7.7
H. BigginsF7.2
M. Adu-PokuM6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Rotherham edge attack, Newport County edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Newport County stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Rotherham slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Newport County slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-head unavailable — prediction based on form, attack and defence.
Match Analysis
Newport County have struggled on the road with just two draws and three losses in their last five away matches, while Rotherham look more stable at home with one win and three draws from their recent five outings. Rotherham have scored in all five of their home matches so far but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same five-match spell. Newport County rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence, while Rotherham hold a slight advantage in attack. Over the 2-day comparison window, Rotherham's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points, while Newport County's implied win probability has risen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
65%
Newport County yellow cards after 75'
2
Newport County points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Rotherham
Rotherham's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Rotherham win as less likely than it did 2 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Rotherham win
Latest market chance 44.1%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
45.1% → 44.1%
−1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.8% → 27.8%
±0.0 pts
Newport County win
Latest market chance 28.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
27.2% → 28.1%
+0.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Rotherham
Draw
Newport County
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
RotherhamNewport County
Season Profile
This season
23rd
League Position
11th
11
Games Played
11
0.91
Points/Game
1.27
1.09
Goals/Game
1.27
1.64
Conceded/Game
1.18
11.2
Shots/Game
12.1
3.6
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Rotherham at home (7 matches) vs Newport County away (7 matches)
1.14
Points/Game
0.43
1.86
Goals/Game
0.86
2.14
Conceded/Game
1.57
14%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Rotherham
Home form
D
W
D
D
L
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Newport County
Away form
L
L
L
D
D
Winless in last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
No previous meetings on record between Rotherham and Newport County.
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Rotherhamvs
Newport County
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.30
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.9%→Latest 49.3%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.1%→Latest 54.1%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?