Rotherham vs Gillingham Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
New York Stadium
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.93
Draw
3.59
Away Win
3.86
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 4
Match Events ?
Rotherham
Gillingham
Paul Mullin (kian spence) ⚽
17'
34'
⚽ Ronan Chapman Hale
47'
🟨 James Brophy
51'
🟨 Logan Dobbs
60'
⚽ Lamin Sillah (James Brophy)
Julian Eyestone 🟨
66'
67'
⚽ (P) Ronan Chapman Hale
Dominic Iorfa 🟨
75'
Sonny Aljofree 🟨
88'
89'
⚽ (P) Tom Eaves
Match Statistics ?
62%
Ball Possession
38%
12
Total Shots
8
5
Shots on Goal
4
2
Corner Kicks
2
16
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Rotherham (4-2-3-1)
J. Eyestone
D. Hall
D. Iorfa
Sonny Aljofree
K. Ngwenya
O. Ashley
Brandon Ashley Cover
J. Austerfield
K. Spence
J. Buyabu
P. Mullin
Gillingham (3-4-3)
O. Wright
A. Smith
O. Beckles
L. Dobbs
N. Freeman
A. Little
R. McKenzie
J. Brophy
H. Waldock
L. Sillah
Ronan Hale
Player Ratings ?
Rotherham
P. MullinF7.7
A. NemaneF6.7
T. BradshawF6.3
Gillingham
Ronan HaleF8.1
T. EavesF7.7
L. SillahF7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Rotherham edge attack and head-to-head, Gillingham edge recent form, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Gillingham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Rotherham stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Rotherham stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Gillingham have recorded just one victory in their last five away fixtures across multiple campaigns, while Rotherham remain unbeaten at home with two wins and three draws from their corresponding sample. Rotherham have found the net in all five of their recent home outings but have only managed a single clean sheet during that same period. Gillingham rate stronger on form, while Rotherham rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Rotherham won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 30 April 2022, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Gillingham's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Rotherham's implied win probability has fallen by 1.7 percentage points, while Gillingham's implied win probability has risen by 1.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Rotherham
Rotherham's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Rotherham win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Rotherham win
Latest market chance 48.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
50.5% → 48.8%
−1.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.4% → 26.8%
+0.4 pts
Gillingham win
Latest market chance 24.4%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
23.2% → 24.4%
+1.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Rotherham
Draw
Gillingham
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
RotherhamGillingham
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
10th
9
Games Played
9
1.11
Points/Game
1.44
1.22
Goals/Game
1.22
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.00
11.2
Shots/Game
9.8
3.6
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
Rotherham at home (7 matches) vs Gillingham away (7 matches)
1.14
Points/Game
1.57
1.86
Goals/Game
1.71
2.14
Conceded/Game
1.43
14%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Rotherham
Home form
W
D
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Gillingham
Away form
L
D
D
W
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Rotherham Wins
4
Draws
0
Gillingham Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.2
Gillingham0 – 2Rotherham
Rotherham5 – 1Gillingham
Gillingham0 – 3Rotherham
Gillingham0 – 1Rotherham
Rotherham1 – 3Gillingham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Rotherhamvs
Gillingham
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.20
Goals conceded / game
0.90
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.7%→Latest 49.3%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.5%→Latest 52.3%+0.8 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Rotherham's 10 matches and 1 of Gillingham's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?