Rochdale vs Grimsby Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Spotland
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.16
Draw
3.66
Away Win
2.15
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Rochdale
Grimsby
6'
🟨 Charles Vernam
Babajide Ezekiel Adeeko 🟨
20'
Dajaune Brown (Glenn Middleton) ⚽
38'
42'
🟨 Maldini Kacurri
Edward Francis 🟨
49'
50'
🟨 Jamie Walker
57'
⚽ Kieran Green
Cian Hayes 🟨
67'
Ian Watson 🟨
68'
72'
⚽ Jamie Walker
Ian Henderson ⚽
88'
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
16
Total Shots
24
6
Shots on Goal
7
7
Corner Kicks
10
13
Fouls
8
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Rochdale (4-2-3-1)
Sam William John Waller
O. Adebayo-Rowling
A. Flint
Kaiden Wilson
C. Tasker
H. Gilmour
B. Adeeko
C. Hayes
E. Francis
G. Middleton
D. Brown
Grimsby (3-1-4-2)
C. Pym
H. Rodgers
M. Kacurri
J. Foulkes
G. Turi
J. Amaluzor
K. Green
J. Walker
C. Vernam
A. Cook
Iwan Morgan
Player Ratings ?
Rochdale
I. HendersonF8.2
D. BrownF7.9
G. MiddletonM7.5
Grimsby
K. GreenM7.3
J. WalkerM7.0
H. RodgersD6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Rochdale edge recent form and defence, Grimsby edge head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Rochdale stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Rochdale slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Grimsby stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Grimsby have recorded three draws and two defeats in their last five away outings, while Rochdale boast a more positive record with three wins from their last five home fixtures. Rochdale have found the net in all of their last five home matches, though they have kept three clean sheets in that same run. Rochdale rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence, while Grimsby rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Grimsby won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 11 March 2023, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Rochdale's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Rochdale's implied win probability has risen by 1.8 percentage points, while Grimsby's implied win probability has fallen by 2.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Rochdale losing run
3
Grimsby points from last 5 matches
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Grimsby
Grimsby's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Grimsby win as less likely than it did 2 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Rochdale win
Latest market chance 29.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
27.5% → 29.3%
+1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.9% → 26.2%
+0.3 pts
Grimsby win
Latest market chance 44.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
46.6% → 44.6%
−2.0 pts
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
RochdaleGrimsby
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
15th
11
Games Played
11
1.27
Points/Game
1.18
1.18
Goals/Game
1.18
1.36
Conceded/Game
1.18
9.6
Shots/Game
16.6
3.1
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Rochdale at home (7 matches) vs Grimsby away (7 matches)
1.43
Points/Game
1.00
1.43
Goals/Game
1.57
1.86
Conceded/Game
1.43
43%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Rochdale
Home form
L
W
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Grimsby
Away form
D
D
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Rochdale Wins
3
Draws
0
Grimsby Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Grimsby1 – 0Rochdale
Rochdale0 – 1Grimsby
Rochdale4 – 1Grimsby
Grimsby0 – 2Rochdale
Rochdale2 – 0Grimsby
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Rochdalevs
Grimsby
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.30
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.3%→Latest 54.8%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.6%→Latest 58.5%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?