Port Vale vs Northampton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Vale Park
Tue 24 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.83
Draw
3.34
Away Win
4.27
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Port Vale edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Port Vale stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Port Vale slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Port Vale stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Northampton have recorded two wins and a draw from their last five away outings, while Port Vale have secured just one victory in three draws and a single defeat during their last five home matches. Port Vale have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have only managed two clean sheets within that same span. Northampton rate stronger on form, while Port Vale rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack and defence are closely matched. Port Vale won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 24 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Northampton's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 0.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Advertisement
Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Port Vale win
Latest market chance 42.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
42.3% → 42.9%
+0.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.0% → 29.0%
±0.0 pts
Northampton win
Latest market chance 28.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.8% → 28.1%
−0.7 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
7 snapshots
+1.5+0.750−0.75Sep 20Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 26
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Port Vale
Draw
Northampton
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Port Vale
Northampton
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
21st
12
Games Played
13
1.25
Points/Game
1.08
0.83
Goals/Game
0.69
1.17
Conceded/Game
0.77
11.2
Shots/Game
11.5
3.7
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Port Vale at home (6 matches) vs Northampton away (6 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
1.00
1.33
Goals/Game
0.83
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.00
67%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Port Vale
Home form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Northampton
Away form
D
L
D
W
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Port Vale Wins
2
Draws
2
Northampton Wins
1
Avg Goals
0.8
2026-02-242025-2026
Northampton0 – 1Port Vale
2025-10-042025-2026
Port Vale0 – 0Northampton
2024-04-012023-2024
Northampton2 – 0Port Vale
2023-09-162023-2024
Port Vale1 – 0Northampton
2022-02-122021-2022
Port Vale0 – 0Northampton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Port Vale
vs
Northampton
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.10
Goals conceded / game
0.80
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
0/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
4/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
66.7%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
42.5%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
24.2%
BTTSBoth teams score
48.5%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 42.4%→Latest 42.5%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.5%→Latest 48.5%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
Loading poll…