Port Vale vs Grimsby Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Vale Park
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.67
Draw
3.34
Away Win
2.64
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Port Vale
Grimsby
George Cardinal Joseph·Hall 🟨
42'
Kyle Dempsey (Jaheim·Headley) ⚽
45'
45+1'
🟨 Finn Cartwright
Match Statistics ?
49%
Ball Possession
51%
16
Total Shots
11
7
Shots on Goal
2
8
Corner Kicks
4
7
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Port Vale (3-5-2)
M. Maroši
C. Humphreys
J. Moon
C. Hall
J. Lawrence-Gabriel
K. Dempsey
G. Hall
B. Garrity
J. Headley
O. Hernández
M. Watters
Grimsby (4-1-4-1)
C. Pym
H. Rodgers
M. Kacurri
C. McJannet
J. Sweeney
G. Turi
J. Amaluzor
K. Green
F. Cartwright
C. Vernam
A. Cook
Player Ratings ?
Port Vale
K. DempseyM8.2
M. MarošiG6.8
J. HeadleyM6.7
Grimsby
C. PymG7.2
C. McJannetD7.0
G. TuriM6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Port Vale edge defence, Grimsby edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Grimsby stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Grimsby stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Port Vale slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Grimsby stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Grimsby have drawn four of their last five away fixtures, while Port Vale have recorded just one win from their corresponding home outings during this same recent period. Port Vale have scored in three of their last five home matches but have kept two clean sheets in that identical sample size. Grimsby rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Port Vale hold a slight advantage in defence. The most recent meeting, on 21 April 2025, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Port Vale's implied win probability has fallen by 2.1 percentage points, while Grimsby's implied win probability has risen by 1.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Port Vale
Port Vale's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Port Vale win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Port Vale win
Latest market chance 36.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
38.2% → 36.1%
−2.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.7% → 28.4%
+0.7 pts
Grimsby win
Latest market chance 35.4%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
34.1% → 35.4%
+1.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Port Vale
Draw
Grimsby
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Port ValeGrimsby
Season Profile
This season
23rd
League Position
9th
7
Games Played
9
0.71
Points/Game
1.44
0.43
Goals/Game
1.44
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.11
11.2
Shots/Game
16.6
3.7
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Port Vale at home (6 matches) vs Grimsby away (7 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
1.00
1.33
Goals/Game
1.57
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.43
67%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Port Vale
Home form
D
L
D
D
W
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Grimsby
Away form
D
D
D
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Port Vale Wins
1
Draws
1
Grimsby Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.6
Port Vale2 – 2Grimsby
Grimsby3 – 0Port Vale
Grimsby1 – 0Port Vale
Port Vale3 – 0Grimsby
Grimsby5 – 2Port Vale
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Port Valevs
Grimsby
Recent Scoring Profile
0.70
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.20
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
5/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.2%→Latest 48.5%−1.7 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.9%→Latest 54.0%−1.9 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Port Vale's 10 matches and 1 of Grimsby's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?