Port Vale vs Chesterfield Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Vale Park
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.88
Draw
3.54
Away Win
2.36
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Port Vale
Chesterfield
Cameron Humphreys 🟨
15'
Jordan Gabriel 🟨
30'
Onel Hernández ⚽
45'
54'
🟨 Ryan Stirk
Jaheim·Headley 🟨
59'
64'
🟨 Lewis Gordon
Jon Edmund Alexander Brady 🟨
69'
Match Statistics ?
36%
Ball Possession
64%
5
Total Shots
8
3
Shots on Goal
4
0
Corner Kicks
10
14
Fouls
6
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
5
4
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Port Vale (3-5-2)
M. Maroši
C. Humphreys
J. Moon
C. Hall
J. Lawrence-Gabriel
K. Dempsey
G. Hall
B. Garrity
J. Headley
M. Watters
O. Hernández
Chesterfield (4-2-3-1)
R. Boot
R. Hutton
K. McFadzean
J. Simpson
L. Gordon
G. McEachran
R. Stirk
D. Markanday
L. Marsh
J. Randall
L. Bonis
Player Ratings ?
Port Vale
O. HernándezF7.9
M. MarošiG7.2
O. LynchF7.0
Chesterfield
J. SimpsonD6.8
K. McFadzeanD6.8
G. McEachranM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Port Vale edge defence and head-to-head, Chesterfield edge recent form and attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Chesterfield stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Chesterfield stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Port Vale stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Port Vale stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Chesterfield have secured two wins and a draw from their last five away outings, while Port Vale have recorded two victories and two draws in their last five home matches. Port Vale have found the net in three of their last five home matches, yet they have also kept three clean sheets during that same period. Chesterfield rate stronger on form and attack, while Port Vale rate stronger on defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 25 January 2025, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Port Vale's implied win probability has fallen by 1.5 percentage points, while Chesterfield's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Port Vale
Port Vale's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Port Vale win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Chesterfield remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Port Vale win
Latest market chance 33.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
34.9% → 33.4%
−1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.2% → 27.3%
+0.1 pts
Chesterfield win
Latest market chance 39.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
37.9% → 39.3%
+1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Port Vale
Draw
Chesterfield
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Port ValeChesterfield
Season Profile
This season
22nd
League Position
7th
8
Games Played
10
1.00
Points/Game
1.50
0.50
Goals/Game
1.70
1.12
Conceded/Game
1.40
11.2
Shots/Game
17.1
3.7
Shots on Target
5.6
Home vs Away Context
Port Vale at home (6 matches) vs Chesterfield away (7 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
1.00
1.33
Goals/Game
1.14
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.71
67%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Port Vale
Home form
L
D
D
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Chesterfield
Away form
W
L
W
L
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Port Vale Wins
2
Draws
1
Chesterfield Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.8
Chesterfield1 – 1Port Vale
Port Vale1 – 0Chesterfield
Port Vale2 – 1Chesterfield
Chesterfield2 – 0Port Vale
Chesterfield1 – 0Port Vale
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Port Valevs
Chesterfield
Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.40
1/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
2/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
5/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 51.5%−2.1 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.0%→Latest 56.3%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Port Vale's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?