Port Vale vs Accrington Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Vale Park
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.04
Draw
3.25
Away Win
3.82
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Port Vale edge head-to-head, Accrington edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Accrington slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Accrington stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Accrington slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Port Vale slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Port Vale have enjoyed a perfect run at home with four wins from five, while Accrington have managed just one victory in their last five away outings. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home matches, yet they have also kept clean sheets in four of those same five games. Accrington rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in form and defence, while Port Vale hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. Port Vale won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 1 February 2025, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Accrington's 2, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Port Vale's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points, while Accrington's implied win probability has risen by 0.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Port Vale
Port Vale's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Port Vale win as less likely than it did 11 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Port Vale win
Latest market chance 46.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
47.4% → 46.6%
−0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.8% → 28.3%
+0.5 pts
Accrington win
Latest market chance 25.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.8% → 25.2%
+0.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Port Vale
Draw
Accrington
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Port ValeAccrington
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
9th
12
Games Played
14
1.25
Points/Game
1.36
0.83
Goals/Game
1.64
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.21
11.2
Shots/Game
15.4
3.7
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Port Vale at home (6 matches) vs Accrington away (7 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
0.86
1.33
Goals/Game
1.43
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.29
67%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Port Vale
Home form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Accrington
Away form
L
D
D
D
W
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Port Vale Wins
1
Draws
2
Accrington Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.4
Port Vale2 – 1Accrington
Accrington2 – 2Port Vale
Accrington3 – 0Port Vale
Port Vale1 – 1Accrington
Accrington3 – 2Port Vale
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Port Valevs
Accrington
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.10
Goals conceded / game
0.80
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.1%→Latest 45.9%−1.2 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.8%→Latest 50.0%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?