Oldham vs Cheltenham Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Boundary Park
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.72
Draw
3.93
Away Win
4.49
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Oldham
Cheltenham
18'
🟨 Shaun McWilliams
Calum Kavanagh (Favour fawunmi) ⚽
19'
24'
🟨 Charlie McCann
Jamie Robson (Favour fawunmi) ⚽
25'
Favour fawunmi (Calum Kavanagh) ⚽
41'
45+1'
⚽ Freddie willcox
Jamie Robson (Oliver Hammond) ⚽
81'
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
18
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Goal
4
4
Corner Kicks
5
6
Fouls
11
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Oldham (4-2-3-1)
M. Hudson
W. Sutton
D. Daniels
E. Monthe
J. Robson
O. Norburn
K. Appiah-Forson
K. Drummond
T. Pett
F. Fawunmi
C. Kavanagh
Cheltenham (4-2-3-1)
W. Stanway
S. McWilliams
J. Wilson
P. Sweeney
G. Nurse
C. McCann
F. Willcox
J. Evans
G. Miller
J. Shipley
A. Weimann
Player Ratings ?
Oldham
F. FawunmiM9.3
C. KavanaghF8.6
J. RobsonD7.9
Cheltenham
F. WillcoxM7.1
C. McCannM6.6
K. OtchereF6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Oldham edge defence and head-to-head, Cheltenham edge recent form, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Cheltenham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Oldham stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Oldham stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Cheltenham have managed just one win from their last five away fixtures, while Oldham have secured two victories in their last five home outings. Oldham have found the net in four of their last five matches at home and kept three clean sheets during that same period. Cheltenham rate stronger on form, while Oldham rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Oldham won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 17 January 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Cheltenham's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Oldham win
Latest market chance 55.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
54.9% → 55.0%
+0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.5% → 24.0%
+0.5 pts
Cheltenham win
Latest market chance 20.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.6% → 20.9%
−0.7 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
7 snapshots
+1.5+0.750−0.75Oct 11Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 17
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Oldham
Draw
Cheltenham
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Oldham
Cheltenham
Season Profile
This season
21st
League Position
8th
9
Games Played
10
0.89
Points/Game
1.50
1.00
Goals/Game
1.60
1.44
Conceded/Game
1.60
14.3
Shots/Game
8.9
3.7
Shots on Target
3.2
Home vs Away Context
Oldham at home (7 matches) vs Cheltenham away (7 matches)
1.43
Points/Game
0.71
1.57
Goals/Game
1.29
1.14
Conceded/Game
2.14
43%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Oldham
Home form
W
W
L
L
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Cheltenham
Away form
L
D
W
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Oldham Wins
3
Draws
0
Cheltenham Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
2026-01-172025-2026
Oldham2 – 1Cheltenham
2025-09-202025-2026
Cheltenham0 – 3Oldham
2021-01-262020-2021
Cheltenham2 – 0Oldham
2020-11-032020-2021
Oldham2 – 1Cheltenham
2020-01-042019-2020
Cheltenham3 – 0Oldham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Oldham
vs
Cheltenham
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.60
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
76.4%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
53.6%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
32.5%
BTTSBoth teams score
54.2%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.5%→Latest 53.6%−3.9 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Oct 11Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 17
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.5%→Latest 54.0%−1.5 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Oct 11Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 17
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
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