Northampton vs Colchester Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sixfields Stadium
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.03
Draw
3.31
Away Win
3.82
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Northampton
Colchester
M. Warhurst (Lee Evans) ⚽
9'
Sam Hoskins 🟨
15'
30'
🟨 Moses Sesay
Lee Evans 🟨
32'
Sam Hoskins (Owen Dale) ⚽
50'
Match Statistics ?
35%
Ball Possession
65%
13
Total Shots
4
4
Shots on Goal
3
7
Corner Kicks
2
12
Fouls
13
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Northampton (4-4-2)
Z. Jeacock
J. Donacien
E. Moore
J. Guthrie
J. Maxwell
J. Wormleighton
C. Lemonheigh-Evans
L. Evans
S. Hoskins
O. Dale
Matthew Warhurst
Colchester (4-2-3-1)
T. Lo-Tutala
R. Hunt
J. Tucker
F. Terry
E. Iandolo
J. Williams
Ben Perry
O. Thorn
M. Sesay
B. Lubala
B. Ihionvien
Player Ratings ?
Northampton
S. HoskinsM7.9
Matthew WarhurstF7.9
E. MooreD7.7
Colchester
J. TuckerD6.8
T. Lo-TutalaG6.7
Jaden WilliamsF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Northampton edge defence and head-to-head, Colchester edge recent form, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Colchester slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Northampton stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Northampton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Colchester arrive at this League Two fixture with a poor away record, having recorded just two draws and three losses in their last five outings, while Northampton have managed one win alongside two draws from their own home sample of five matches. At home, Northampton have scored in only two of their last five matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that same period. Colchester hold a slight advantage in form, while Northampton rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Northampton won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 25 February 2023, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Colchester's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Northampton's implied win probability has risen by 1.8 percentage points, while Colchester's implied win probability has fallen by 2.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4/5
One-goal H2H results
2
Colchester points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Colchester
Colchester's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Colchester win as less likely than it did 4 days ago. Northampton remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Northampton win
Latest market chance 46.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
44.4% → 46.2%
+1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.5% → 28.7%
+0.2 pts
Colchester win
Latest market chance 25.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
27.1% → 25.1%
−2.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Northampton
Draw
Colchester
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NorthamptonColchester
Season Profile
This season
23rd
League Position
19th
10
Games Played
11
1.00
Points/Game
1.09
0.60
Goals/Game
1.00
0.80
Conceded/Game
1.27
11.5
Shots/Game
12.5
3.8
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Northampton at home (8 matches) vs Colchester away (7 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
0.43
0.50
Goals/Game
0.86
0.62
Conceded/Game
1.86
25%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Northampton
Home form
D
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Colchester
Away form
L
L
D
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Northampton Wins
4
Draws
0
Colchester Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
Colchester0 – 1Northampton
Northampton3 – 2Colchester
Northampton3 – 0Colchester
Colchester0 – 1Northampton
Colchester1 – 0Northampton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Northamptonvs
Colchester
Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
0.90
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.20
0/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
5/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 44.0%→Latest 43.6%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 49.5%→Latest 48.8%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?