Newport County vs York Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Rodney Parade
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.59
Draw
3.84
Away Win
1.93
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Newport County
York
4'
⚽ Ollie Pearce (Alex Hunt)
M. Dibley-Dias 🟨
17'
24'
🟥 jovan malcolm
47'
🟨 Ollie Pearce
53'
🟨 Joey Grey
Kion Etete (Tanatswa Nyakuhwa) ⚽
54'
Harrison Biggins 🟨
79'
Kion Etete 🟨
87'
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
17
Total Shots
11
3
Shots on Goal
1
6
Corner Kicks
0
12
Fouls
10
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
0
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Newport County (4-2-3-1)
J. Wright
C. Norman
L. Jenkins
K. Cameron
M. Jacob
M. Dibley-Dias
C. Brennan
T. Nyakuhwa
H. Biggins
Y. Bamba
S. Gwengwe
York (3-4-2-1)
Alfie Shane McNally
R. Fallowfield
Z. Johnson
M. Kitching
J. Felix
A. Hunt
O. Banks
H. Boyes
J. Grey
O. Pearce
J. Malcolm
Player Ratings ?
Newport County
K. EteteF8.1
K. CameronD7.1
C. NormanD6.9
York
A. HuntM7.6
O. PearceM7.5
H. BoyesM7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Newport County edge defence and head-to-head, York edge recent form and attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
York slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
York slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Newport County stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Newport County stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Newport County have secured three wins and two draws across their last five home outings, whereas York have managed only three draws and two defeats in their recent away fixtures. The hosts have scored in all five of their last home matches while keeping just two clean sheets during that same period. York hold a slight advantage in form and attack, while Newport County rate stronger on defence and head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2016. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
65%
Newport County yellow cards after 75'
3
York points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Newport County win
Latest market chance 25.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.9% → 25.7%
−0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.4% → 25.4%
±0.0 pts
York win
Latest market chance 48.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
48.7% → 48.9%
+0.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Newport County
Draw
York
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Newport CountyYork
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
5th
10
Games Played
9
1.30
Points/Game
1.67
1.30
Goals/Game
1.89
1.20
Conceded/Game
1.22
12.1
Shots/Game
14.6
3.6
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away Context
Newport County at home (7 matches) vs York away (8 matches)
2.14
Points/Game
0.38
2.00
Goals/Game
1.12
0.86
Conceded/Game
2.38
57%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Newport County
Home form
W
D
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
York
Away form
D
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Newport County Wins
3
Draws
0
York Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
York0 – 1Newport County
Newport County0 – 3York
York0 – 2Newport County
Newport County3 – 1York
York1 – 0Newport County
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Newport Countyvs
York
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.40
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.2%→Latest 55.2%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.4%→Latest 57.6%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?