Newport County vs Colchester Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Rodney Parade
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.60
Draw
3.56
Away Win
2.58
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Newport County
Colchester
40'
🟨 Jay Williams
48'
🟨 Beryly Lubala
76'
🟨 Bradley ihionvein
Tanatswa Nyakuhwa (Matty Jacobs) ⚽
79'
Match Statistics ?
36%
Ball Possession
64%
11
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Goal
4
5
Corner Kicks
4
14
Fouls
21
0
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Newport County (4-2-3-1)
J. Wright
C. Norman
L. Jenkins
K. Cameron
M. Jacob
M. Dibley-Dias
C. Brennan
M. Adu-Poku
H. Biggins
S. Gwengwe
C. Doidge
Colchester (4-2-3-1)
T. Lo-Tutala
S. Kuffour
J. Tucker
P. Digby
E. Iandolo
J. Williams
J. Payne
M. Sesay
H. Anderson
B. Lubala
O. Thorn
Player Ratings ?
Newport County
T. NyakuhwaF7.7
M. JacobD7.2
H. BigginsM7.2
Colchester
P. DigbyD7.2
T. Lo-TutalaG6.9
E. IandoloD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Newport County edge recent form and defence, Colchester edge head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Newport County slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Newport County stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Colchester stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Newport County have enjoyed a solid run at home with three wins and no defeats from their last five outings, while Colchester have managed just one victory in the same number of away fixtures. The hosts have found the net in all five home matches recently but have only kept a clean sheet once during that identical sample. Newport County rate stronger on defence, with a slight advantage in form, while Colchester rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Colchester won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 7 March 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Newport County's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Newport County's implied win probability has risen by 0.7 percentage points, while Colchester's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Colchester
Colchester's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Colchester win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Newport County win
Latest market chance 36.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
35.7% → 36.4%
+0.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.7% → 26.8%
+0.1 pts
Colchester win
Latest market chance 36.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
37.6% → 36.8%
−0.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Newport County
Draw
Colchester
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Newport CountyColchester
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
19th
9
Games Played
8
1.11
Points/Game
1.25
1.33
Goals/Game
1.25
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.50
12.1
Shots/Game
12.5
3.6
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Newport County at home (7 matches) vs Colchester away (7 matches)
2.14
Points/Game
0.43
2.00
Goals/Game
0.86
0.86
Conceded/Game
1.86
57%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Newport County
Home form
W
W
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Colchester
Away form
W
D
L
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Newport County Wins
0
Draws
1
Colchester Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.6
Newport County1 – 2Colchester
Colchester4 – 1Newport County
Newport County0 – 2Colchester
Colchester0 – 0Newport County
Colchester2 – 1Newport County
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Newport Countyvs
Colchester
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.8%→Latest 52.6%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.7%→Latest 57.1%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
1 of Newport County's 10 matches and 2 of Colchester's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?