Newport County vs Chesterfield Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Rodney Parade
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.81
Draw
3.63
Away Win
1.94
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Newport County
Chesterfield
13'
🟨 Remeao Hutton
Cameron Norman ⚽
14'
17'
🟨 George McEachran
Thomas Davies (Harrison Biggins) ⚽
18'
21'
🟨 Paul Anthony Cook
23'
🟨 Liam Mandeville
Harrison Biggins (Michael Adu-Poku) ⚽
29'
Yahya Bamba ⚽
45+2'
45+3'
🟥 Paul Anthony Cook
58'
⚽ Liam Mandeville (Remeao Hutton)
Ciaran Brennan 🟨
76'
Gerard Garner 🟨
89'
90+4'
🟨 Jack Simpson
Match Statistics ?
28%
Ball Possession
71%
21
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Goal
3
6
Corner Kicks
4
12
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
6
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Newport County (4-2-3-1)
J. Wright
C. Norman
L. Jenkins
K. Cameron
T. Davies
M. Smith
C. Brennan
M. Adu-Poku
H. Biggins
Y. Bamba
K. Etete
Chesterfield (4-2-3-1)
Z. Hemming
R. Hutton
A. Pond
J. Simpson
T. Pearce
T. Naylor
G. McEachran
D. Markanday
L. Mandeville
J. Koroma
F. Bryden
Player Ratings ?
Newport County
H. BigginsM8.2
C. NormanD8.1
Y. BambaM7.5
Chesterfield
L. MandevilleM7.2
L. MarshF6.5
T. NaylorM6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Newport County edge defence, Chesterfield edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Chesterfield stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Chesterfield stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Newport County stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Chesterfield stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Newport County have remained unbeaten in their last five home outings with two victories and three draws, whereas Chesterfield have recorded just a single win alongside one draw from their last five away fixtures. The hosts have found the net in all of their last five home matches but have managed just a solitary clean sheet during that same period. Chesterfield rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Newport County rate stronger on defence. Newport County won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 24 January 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Chesterfield's 4, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Newport County's implied win probability has fallen by 1.2 percentage points, while Chesterfield's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
54%
Newport County yellow cards after 75'
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Chesterfield
Chesterfield's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Chesterfield win as more likely than it did 4 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Newport County win
Latest market chance 25.7%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
26.9% → 25.7%
−1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.6% → 26.4%
−0.2 pts
Chesterfield win
Latest market chance 47.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
46.5% → 47.9%
+1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Newport County
Draw
Chesterfield
10 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Newport CountyChesterfield
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
7th
13
Games Played
13
1.15
Points/Game
1.46
1.23
Goals/Game
1.77
1.23
Conceded/Game
1.31
12.1
Shots/Game
17.1
3.6
Shots on Target
5.6
Home vs Away Context
Newport County at home (7 matches) vs Chesterfield away (7 matches)
2.14
Points/Game
1.00
2.00
Goals/Game
1.14
0.86
Conceded/Game
1.71
57%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Newport County
Home form
D
D
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Chesterfield
Away form
L
W
L
D
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Newport County Wins
1
Draws
0
Chesterfield Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.0
Newport County2 – 1Chesterfield
Chesterfield4 – 1Newport County
Chesterfield2 – 1Newport County
Newport County0 – 3Chesterfield
Chesterfield1 – 0Newport County
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Newport Countyvs
Chesterfield
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
2.10
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.40
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
4/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 51.7%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.0%→Latest 55.1%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?