Grimsby vs Northampton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Blundell Park
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.75
Draw
3.83
Away Win
4.46
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Grimsby
Northampton
Douglas Tharme 🟨
28'
34'
⚽ M. Warhurst (Lee Evans)
Charles Vernam 🟨
42'
54'
🟨 josh powell
58'
⚽ Jon Guthrie (Elliott Moore)
Edon Pruti 🟥
61'
Jamie Walker 🟨
72'
74'
🟨 Jon Guthrie
David Artell 🟨
75'
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
13
Total Shots
10
3
Shots on Goal
6
3
Corner Kicks
7
9
Fouls
14
3
Yellow Cards
2
1
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Grimsby (4-1-4-1)
C. Pym
H. Rodgers
M. Kacurri
D. Tharme
E. Pruti
G. Turi
J. Amaluzor
K. Green
J. Walker
C. Vernam
Iwan Morgan
Northampton (4-4-2)
Z. Jeacock
J. Donacien
E. Moore
J. Guthrie
Joshua Alan Powell
J. Wormleighton
C. Lemonheigh-Evans
L. Evans
J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh
O. Dale
Matthew Warhurst
Player Ratings ?
Grimsby
Iwan MorganF6.7
M. KacurriD6.7
S. FinchF6.6
Northampton
L. EvansM7.7
E. MooreD7.7
J. DonacienD7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Grimsby edge recent form and attack, defence and head-to-head are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Grimsby stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Grimsby stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Grimsby have secured three wins from their last five outings at home, while Northampton have recorded just a single victory in their corresponding away sample over that same span. At home, Grimsby have scored in every one of their last five matches but have managed only three clean sheets during that identical period. Grimsby rate stronger on form and attack, while defence and head-to-head are closely matched. Grimsby won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 18 February 2023, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Northampton's 2, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Grimsby's implied win probability has fallen by 1.9 percentage points, while Northampton's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Grimsby
Grimsby's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Grimsby win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Grimsby win
Latest market chance 53.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
55.5% → 53.6%
−1.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
23.8% → 24.6%
+0.8 pts
Northampton win
Latest market chance 21.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
20.7% → 21.8%
+1.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Grimsby
Draw
Northampton
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GrimsbyNorthampton
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
23rd
10
Games Played
8
1.30
Points/Game
0.88
1.30
Goals/Game
0.50
1.10
Conceded/Game
0.88
16.6
Shots/Game
11.5
5.2
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Grimsby at home (7 matches) vs Northampton away (6 matches)
1.86
Points/Game
1.00
1.86
Goals/Game
0.83
1.14
Conceded/Game
1.00
57%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Grimsby
Home form
W
D
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Northampton
Away form
W
L
D
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Grimsby Wins
1
Draws
2
Northampton Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.0
Northampton1 – 2Grimsby
Grimsby1 – 1Northampton
Grimsby0 – 3Northampton
Northampton2 – 0Grimsby
Grimsby0 – 0Northampton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Grimsbyvs
Northampton
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
0.50
1.10
Goals conceded / game
0.80
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
0/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
2/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 51.1%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.6%→Latest 52.5%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
1 of Northampton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?