Gillingham vs Port Vale Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Priestfield Stadium
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.04
Draw
3.31
Away Win
2.37
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Gillingham
Port Vale
Ronan Chapman Hale ⚽ (P)
42'
56'
🟨 Jasper·Moon
66'
⚽ Keyrol Alexis Figueroa Norales
Conor McManus 🟨
79'
Jack Daley 🟨
85'
Match Statistics ?
41%
Ball Possession
59%
9
Total Shots
11
3
Shots on Goal
3
9
Corner Kicks
4
12
Fouls
11
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Gillingham (3-4-3)
O. Wright
A. Smith
O. Beckles
J. Daley
J. Brophy
E. Coleman
A. Little
Conor McManus
N. Freeman
Ronan Hale
T. Eaves
Port Vale (3-5-2)
M. Maroši
C. Humphreys
J. Moon
C. Hall
J. Lawrence-Gabriel
B. Garrity
G. Byers
G. Hall
K. John
M. Watters
O. Hernández
Player Ratings ?
Gillingham
Ronan HaleF7.1
O. BecklesD6.8
G. McClearyM6.7
Port Vale
K. FigueroaF8.2
O. LynchF6.8
M. WattersF6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Gillingham edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Gillingham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Gillingham stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Gillingham stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Port Vale have struggled on the road with just a solitary win from their last five away fixtures, whereas Gillingham look more settled at home having recorded two victories and two draws in that same span. The hosts have scored in three of their last five home matches while simultaneously keeping three clean sheets during that identical period. Gillingham rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Gillingham won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 3 May 2025, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Port Vale's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 2-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
3
Port Vale points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Gillingham
Gillingham's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Gillingham win as less likely than it did 2 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Port Vale remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Gillingham win
Latest market chance 31.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
32.6% → 31.4%
−1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.4% → 29.0%
+0.6 pts
Port Vale win
Latest market chance 39.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
39.0% → 39.6%
+0.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Gillingham
Draw
Port Vale
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GillinghamPort Vale
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
21st
11
Games Played
9
1.45
Points/Game
1.22
1.45
Goals/Game
0.56
1.18
Conceded/Game
1.00
9.8
Shots/Game
11.2
3.4
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Gillingham at home (7 matches) vs Port Vale away (6 matches)
1.29
Points/Game
0.17
1.14
Goals/Game
0.33
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.83
29%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Gillingham
Home form
L
D
W
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Port Vale
Away form
W
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
1 of these match from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Gillingham Wins
2
Draws
1
Port Vale Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.8
Port Vale0 – 1Gillingham
Gillingham1 – 0Port Vale
Gillingham1 – 1Port Vale
Port Vale2 – 1Gillingham
Gillingham0 – 2Port Vale
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Gillinghamvs
Port Vale
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
0.50
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
1/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
3/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.6%→Latest 46.1%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 51.6%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
1 of Port Vale's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?