Gillingham vs Grimsby Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Priestfield Stadium
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.28
Draw
3.45
Away Win
2.18
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 4
Match Events ?
Gillingham
Grimsby
7'
⚽ Harvey Rodgers
Garath McCleary 🟨
24'
Ronan Chapman Hale (Garath McCleary) ⚽
37'
43'
🟨 Géza Dávid Turi
51'
🟨 Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzor
Armani Little 🟨
53'
54'
⚽ (P) Iwan Morgan
62'
🟨 Maldini Kacurri
63'
⚽ Géza Dávid Turi
70'
⚽ Sonny Finch (Géza Dávid Turi)
89'
🟨 Sonny Finch
Ethan·Coleman 🟨
90'
Match Statistics ?
55%
Ball Possession
45%
8
Total Shots
21
2
Shots on Goal
9
4
Corner Kicks
6
16
Fouls
11
3
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
5
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Gillingham (3-4-3)
O. Wright
A. Smith
O. Beckles
J. Daley
N. Freeman
R. McKenzie
A. Little
Conor McManus
G. McCleary
Ronan Hale
J. Brophy
Grimsby (4-1-4-1)
C. Pym
H. Rodgers
M. Kacurri
J. Foulkes
Iwan Morgan
G. Turi
J. Amaluzor
K. Green
J. Walker
C. Vernam
A. Cook
Player Ratings ?
Gillingham
Ronan HaleF7.7
G. McClearyF6.9
J. DaleyD6.8
Grimsby
G. TuriM8.0
S. FinchF7.3
H. RodgersD7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Gillingham edge recent form and defence, Grimsby edge attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Gillingham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Grimsby slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Gillingham stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Grimsby stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Gillingham have remained unbeaten in their last five matches at home with two wins and three draws, while Grimsby have drawn three of their last five away outings but also suffered two defeats. At the club's home venue, Gillingham have scored in four of their last five matches and managed three clean sheets during that same period. Gillingham rate stronger on form and defence, while Grimsby rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Grimsby won the most recent meeting 4-1 on 18 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Gillingham's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Gillingham's implied win probability has fallen by 0.3 percentage points, while Grimsby's implied win probability has risen by 1.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Grimsby losing run
3
Grimsby points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Grimsby
Grimsby's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Grimsby win as more likely than it did 4 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Gillingham win
Latest market chance 29.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.5% → 29.2%
−0.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.7% → 27.2%
−0.5 pts
Grimsby win
Latest market chance 43.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
42.7% → 43.7%
+1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Gillingham
Draw
Grimsby
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GillinghamGrimsby
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
17th
12
Games Played
12
1.42
Points/Game
1.17
1.42
Goals/Game
1.25
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.25
9.8
Shots/Game
16.6
3.4
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Gillingham at home (7 matches) vs Grimsby away (7 matches)
1.29
Points/Game
1.00
1.14
Goals/Game
1.57
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.43
29%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Gillingham
Home form
D
W
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Grimsby
Away form
D
D
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Gillingham Wins
0
Draws
2
Grimsby Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.2
Gillingham1 – 4Grimsby
Grimsby1 – 0Gillingham
Grimsby1 – 1Gillingham
Gillingham0 – 1Grimsby
Gillingham1 – 1Grimsby
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Gillinghamvs
Grimsby
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.50
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.7%→Latest 52.3%+3.6 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 56.6%+3.0 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?