Exeter vs Crewe Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
St James Park
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.62
Draw
3.04
Away Win
2.93
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Exeter
Crewe
Anthony Scully ⚽ (P)
21'
57'
🟨 Charlie McNeill
60'
🟨 Lee Bell
Jack Fitzwater 🟨
81'
Matthew James Taylor 🟨
85'
Reece Cole ⚽
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
15
Total Shots
16
5
Shots on Goal
4
3
Corner Kicks
6
11
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Exeter (4-2-3-1)
J. Bycroft
L. Samuel
J. Taylor
J. Fitzwater
L. Woodhouse
J. Doyle-Hayes
C. Cummins
George Birch
T. Perry
A. Scully
S. Cox
Crewe (4-2-3-1)
T. Booth
L. Billington
L. Offord
J. Stephenson
Kyle Ure
O. Lunt
J. White
J. Tabiner
M. Holíček
J. Gibson
J. March
Player Ratings ?
Exeter
R. ColeM8.0
L. WoodhouseD7.7
J. TaylorD7.6
Crewe
J. GibsonM6.7
J. StephensonD6.6
Calum AgiusF6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Exeter edge defence and head-to-head, Crewe edge recent form and attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Crewe stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Crewe stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Exeter stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Exeter stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Crewe are unbeaten in their last five away fixtures with two wins and three draws, while Exeter have enjoyed an identical run of form at home during the same period. At this venue, Exeter have scored in just three of their last five matches and kept four clean sheets in that same sample. Crewe rate stronger on form and attack, while Exeter rate stronger on defence and head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2020. The market has remained broadly steady over the 2-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards the draw
the draw's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a draw as more likely than it did 2 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Exeter remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Exeter win
Latest market chance 36.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
37.6% → 36.9%
−0.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 30.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
29.1% → 30.3%
+1.2 pts
Crewe win
Latest market chance 32.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
33.4% → 32.8%
−0.6 pts
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ExeterCrewe
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
3rd
11
Games Played
11
1.18
Points/Game
1.91
0.55
Goals/Game
1.36
0.55
Conceded/Game
0.82
11.1
Shots/Game
11.1
3.3
Shots on Target
3.3
Home vs Away Context
Exeter at home (7 matches) vs Crewe away (7 matches)
2.14
Points/Game
1.29
1.14
Goals/Game
0.71
0.29
Conceded/Game
1.29
57%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Exeter
Home form
W
D
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Crewe
Away form
W
D
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Exeter Wins
3
Draws
2
Crewe Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.2
Exeter1 – 1Crewe
Crewe1 – 1Exeter
Crewe1 – 2Exeter
Exeter1 – 0Crewe
Crewe1 – 2Exeter
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Exetervs
Crewe
Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
1.40
0.50
Goals conceded / game
0.90
1/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
2/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
5/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.6%→Latest 44.7%−2.9 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 51.1%−2.5 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?