Exeter vs Cheltenham Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
St James Park
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 12:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.85
Draw
3.74
Away Win
3.94
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Exeter edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Exeter stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Exeter stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Exeter stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Cheltenham have struggled away from home recently with just a solitary victory and one draw in their last five outings, while Exeter look much more comfortable at home having recorded three wins without defeat in the same number of matches. At this venue, Exeter have managed to find the net in three of their last five games but have also kept four clean sheets during that identical recent sample. Exeter rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Exeter won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 1 April 2024, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Cheltenham's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Exeter's implied win probability has risen by 3.6 percentage points, while Cheltenham's implied win probability has fallen by 2.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Cheltenham losing run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Exeter
Exeter's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Exeter win as more likely than it did 11 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Exeter win
Latest market chance 49.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
45.5% → 49.1%
+3.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
27.4% → 26.4%
−1.0 pts
Cheltenham win
Latest market chance 24.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
27.1% → 24.5%
−2.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Exeter
Draw
Cheltenham
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ExeterCheltenham

Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
5th
14
Games Played
14
1.36
Points/Game
1.50
0.79
Goals/Game
1.64
0.64
Conceded/Game
1.79
11.1
Shots/Game
8.9
3.3
Shots on Target
3.2
Home vs Away Context
Exeter at home (7 matches) vs Cheltenham away (7 matches)
2.14
Points/Game
0.71
1.14
Goals/Game
1.29
0.29
Conceded/Game
2.14
57%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Exeter
Home form
D
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Cheltenham
Away form
W
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Exeter Wins
2
Draws
0
Cheltenham Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.0
Cheltenham1 – 2Exeter
Exeter1 – 0Cheltenham
Cheltenham3 – 1Exeter
Exeter0 – 1Cheltenham
Exeter0 – 1Cheltenham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Exetervs
Cheltenham

Recent Scoring Profile
0.70
Goals scored / game
1.50
0.50
Goals conceded / game
1.80
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
2/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
5/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.6%→Latest 48.9%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.7%→Latest 52.0%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
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