Crewe vs Rochdale Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Alexandra Stadium
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.86
Draw
3.54
Away Win
4.22
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 2
Match Events ?
Crewe
Rochdale
Matúš Holíček (Jordan Gibson) ⚽
39'
Jordan Gibson (Owen lunt) ⚽
45'
Joe White 🟨
50'
Jordan Gibson (Kyle Ure) ⚽
55'
65'
⚽ (OG) Joel Tabiner
90'
⚽ Aden Flint (Edward Francis)
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
10
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Goal
3
1
Corner Kicks
7
7
Fouls
7
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Crewe (4-2-3-1)
T. Booth
L. Billington
L. Offord
J. Stephenson
Kyle Ure
O. Lunt
J. White
J. Tabiner
M. Holíček
J. Gibson
J. March
Rochdale (4-2-3-1)
Sam William John Waller
O. Adebayo-Rowling
A. Flint
Kaiden Wilson
C. Tasker
H. Gilmour
B. Adeeko
C. Hayes
Kane Taylor
G. Middleton
D. Brown
Player Ratings ?
Crewe
J. GibsonM8.9
M. HolíčekM7.4
A. ThibautF6.7
Rochdale
A. FlintD7.7
O. Adebayo-RowlingD6.6
E. DieseruvweF6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Crewe edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Crewe slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Crewe stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Crewe slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Crewe stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Crewe have been impressive at home with two wins from their last five outings without a single defeat, while Rochdale have struggled away with just one victory in that same span. Crewe have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have only kept a clean sheet once during that period. Crewe rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form and defence. The most recent meeting, on 25 February 2023, ended level, with 4 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Crewe win
Latest market chance 50.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
50.9% → 50.7%
−0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.8% → 26.1%
+0.3 pts
Rochdale win
Latest market chance 23.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.4% → 23.2%
−0.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Crewe
Draw
Rochdale
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CreweRochdale
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
10th
10
Games Played
10
1.80
Points/Game
1.40
1.20
Goals/Game
1.10
0.70
Conceded/Game
1.20
11.1
Shots/Game
9.6
3.3
Shots on Target
3.1
Home vs Away Context
Crewe at home (7 matches) vs Rochdale away (7 matches)
1.86
Points/Game
0.71
1.71
Goals/Game
1.00
1.14
Conceded/Game
1.86
43%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Crewe
Home form
W
D
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Rochdale
Away form
L
L
D
W
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Crewe Wins
1
Draws
4
Rochdale Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.4
Crewe1 – 1Rochdale
Rochdale1 – 2Crewe
Crewe1 – 1Rochdale
Rochdale3 – 3Crewe
Rochdale2 – 2Crewe
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Crewevs
Rochdale
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.10
0.70
Goals conceded / game
1.20
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 51.4%−2.2 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.5%→Latest 54.0%−1.5 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?