Crewe vs Newport County Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Alexandra Stadium
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.10
Draw
3.34
Away Win
3.52
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Crewe edge attack, Newport County edge defence and head-to-head, recent form is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Crewe slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Newport County stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Newport County stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Newport County have drawn three and lost two of their last five away outings, whereas Crewe remain unbeaten at home with two wins and three draws in that same span. Crewe have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical period. Crewe hold a slight advantage in attack, while Newport County rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, while form is closely matched. Newport County won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 29 December 2025, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Crewe's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Crewe's implied win probability has fallen by 1.1 percentage points, while Newport County's implied win probability has risen by 0.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
58%
Newport County yellow cards after 75'
3
Newport County points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Crewe
Crewe's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Crewe win as less likely than it did 11 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Crewe win
Latest market chance 44.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
45.7% → 44.6%
−1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
27.0% → 27.9%
+0.9 pts
Newport County win
Latest market chance 27.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.2% → 27.5%
+0.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Crewe
Draw
Newport County
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CreweNewport County
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
14th
14
Games Played
14
1.57
Points/Game
1.29
1.21
Goals/Game
1.43
1.21
Conceded/Game
1.21
11.1
Shots/Game
12.1
3.3
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Crewe at home (7 matches) vs Newport County away (7 matches)
1.86
Points/Game
0.43
1.71
Goals/Game
0.86
1.14
Conceded/Game
1.57
43%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Crewe
Home form
D
D
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Newport County
Away form
L
D
D
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Crewe Wins
0
Draws
2
Newport County Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.8
Newport County2 – 0Crewe
Crewe2 – 2Newport County
Crewe0 – 3Newport County
Newport County2 – 1Crewe
Newport County1 – 1Crewe
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Crewevs
Newport County
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.50
Goals conceded / game
0.80
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.4%→Latest 48.3%−3.1 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 53.6%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?