Crawley Town vs Chesterfield Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Broadfield Stadium
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.78
Draw
4.37
Away Win
1.61
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Crawley Town
Chesterfield
23'
⚽ Lee Bonis (Lewis Gordon)
Kai Jennings 🟨
44'
56'
⚽ Louie Marsh
Gianmarco biase di ⚽ (P)
61'
65'
🟨 Josh Koroma
Gianmarco biase di (Dylan Morgan) ⚽
66'
80'
🟨 Louie Marsh
Gianmarco biase di 🟨
83'
90'
🟨 Dilan Markanday
Jonathan Russell 🟨
90+4'
90+4'
🟨 Lewis Gordon
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
11
Total Shots
21
5
Shots on Goal
5
1
Corner Kicks
7
9
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
5
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Crawley Town (4-4-2)
V. Mannone
A. Odimayo
P. Farquharson
C. Barker
L. Richards
A. Adeyemo
J. Arthurs
Kai Jennings
S. Duke-McKenna
Dylan Morgan
D. Orsi
Chesterfield (4-2-3-1)
R. Boot
R. Hutton
K. McFadzean
J. Simpson
L. Gordon
G. McEachran
R. Stirk
D. Markanday
L. Marsh
J. Randall
L. Bonis
Player Ratings ?
Crawley Town
G. Di BiaseF8.2
D. OrsiF7.0
Dylan MorganNone6.9
Chesterfield
L. BonisF8.0
L. MarshM7.0
K. McFadzeanD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Chesterfield
Chesterfield rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; head-to-head is closely matched, giving Chesterfield a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Chesterfield stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Chesterfield stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Chesterfield slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Chesterfield have secured two wins from their last five away outings, while Crawley Town remain winless in three of their last five home matches. Crawley Town have scored in just one of their last five home fixtures and kept two clean sheets during that same period. Chesterfield rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while head-to-head is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 21 February 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Crawley Town's implied win probability has fallen by 3.4 percentage points, while Chesterfield's implied win probability has risen by 4.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Chesterfield a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Chesterfield
Chesterfield's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Chesterfield win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Crawley Town win
Latest market chance 19.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
23.3% → 19.9%
−3.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
23.3% → 22.4%
−0.9 pts
Chesterfield win
Latest market chance 57.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
53.4% → 57.7%
+4.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Crawley Town
Draw
Chesterfield
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Crawley TownChesterfield
Season Profile
This season
24th
League Position
8th
7
Games Played
9
0.57
Points/Game
1.56
0.86
Goals/Game
1.67
1.86
Conceded/Game
1.33
13.4
Shots/Game
17.1
4.3
Shots on Target
5.6
Home vs Away Context
Crawley Town at home (6 matches) vs Chesterfield away (7 matches)
0.33
Points/Game
1.00
1.00
Goals/Game
1.14
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.71
0%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Crawley Town
Home form
D
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Chesterfield
Away form
D
W
L
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Crawley Town Wins
1
Draws
2
Chesterfield Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Crawley Town1 – 1Chesterfield
Chesterfield2 – 2Crawley Town
Chesterfield1 – 2Crawley Town
Crawley Town0 – 2Chesterfield
Chesterfield3 – 0Crawley Town
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Crawley Townvs
Chesterfield
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.20
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
5/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.0%→Latest 60.9%+1.9 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 58.9%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Crawley Town's 10 matches and 1 of Chesterfield's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?