Colchester vs Gillingham Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Colchester Community Stadium
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.13
Draw
3.36
Away Win
3.43
Match Prediction
Data favours
Gillingham
Gillingham rate stronger in recent form and attack; Colchester edge defence and head-to-head, giving Gillingham a slight edge.
Leads 2 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Gillingham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Gillingham stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Colchester slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Colchester slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Gillingham have secured three wins from their last five away outings, while Colchester have managed just one victory in that same span at home. Colchester have found the net in four of their last five matches at home but have also kept two clean sheets during that identical run. Gillingham rate stronger on form and attack, while Colchester hold a slight advantage in defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 29 December 2025, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.4 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Colchester's implied win probability has risen by 1.3 percentage points, while Gillingham's implied win probability has fallen by 1.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Gillingham a slight edge.
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Colchester
Colchester's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Colchester win as more likely than it did 11 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Colchester win
Latest market chance 44.4%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
43.1% → 44.4%
+1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.1% → 28.0%
−0.1 pts
Gillingham win
Latest market chance 27.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
28.7% → 27.6%
−1.1 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
11 snapshots
+1.5+0.750−0.75Nov 3Nov 5Nov 8Nov 11Nov 13
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Colchester
Draw
Gillingham
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Colchester
Gillingham
Season Profile
This season
23rd
League Position
8th
13
Games Played
14
0.92
Points/Game
1.43
0.92
Goals/Game
1.43
1.46
Conceded/Game
1.36
12.5
Shots/Game
9.8
3.8
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
Colchester at home (6 matches) vs Gillingham away (7 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.57
1.00
Goals/Game
1.71
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.43
33%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Colchester
Home form
W
D
D
D
L
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
0.8
Goals scored
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Gillingham
Away form
W
L
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
2.2
Goals scored
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Colchester Wins
1
Draws
3
Gillingham Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.4
2025-12-292025-2026
Gillingham1 – 1Colchester
2025-12-062025-2026
Colchester0 – 0Gillingham
2025-04-012024-2025
Gillingham1 – 1Colchester
2024-12-262024-2025
Colchester2 – 0Gillingham
2024-01-012023-2024
Colchester0 – 1Gillingham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Colchester
vs
Gillingham
Recent Scoring Profile
0.70
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.40
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
72.4%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
49.1%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
28.8%
BTTSBoth teams score
53.8%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.5%→Latest 48.9%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 11 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 53.6%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 11 days before kickoff
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
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