Colchester vs Exeter Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Colchester Community Stadium
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.17
Draw
3.43
Away Win
3.32
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Colchester
Exeter
Jay Williams 🟨
17'
39'
🟨 Jack Fitzwater
66'
🟨 Charlie Cummins
Beryly Lubala 🟨
79'
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
18
Total Shots
8
2
Shots on Goal
1
5
Corner Kicks
2
16
Fouls
11
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Colchester (4-2-3-1)
T. Lo-Tutala
R. Hunt
J. Tucker
F. Terry
E. Iandolo
P. Digby
J. Williams
O. Thorn
M. Sesay
B. Lubala
B. Ihionvien
Exeter (4-2-3-1)
J. Bycroft
L. Samuel
J. Taylor
J. Fitzwater
L. Woodhouse
J. Doyle-Hayes
C. Cummins
A. Scully
T. Perry
George Birch
J. Gordon
Player Ratings ?
Colchester
J. TuckerD6.9
T. Lo-TutalaG6.8
M. SesayM6.7
Exeter
J. TaylorD7.5
Ethan SutherlandD6.8
J. GordonF6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Colchester edge attack, Exeter edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Exeter slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Colchester stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Exeter stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Exeter stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Exeter arrive with a poor away record of just one win from their last five outings, while Colchester look more settled at home having secured two victories alongside two draws in that same span. The Cobblers have scored in four of their last five home matches but have only managed a single clean sheet during that period. Exeter rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form, while Colchester rate stronger on attack. Exeter won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 15 April 2022, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Colchester's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Colchester's implied win probability has fallen by 2.5 percentage points, while Exeter's implied win probability has risen by 1.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Colchester
Colchester's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Colchester win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Colchester win
Latest market chance 43.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
46.2% → 43.7%
−2.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
26.1% → 27.7%
+1.6 pts
Exeter win
Latest market chance 28.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
27.6% → 28.6%
+1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Colchester
Draw
Exeter
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ColchesterExeter
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
14th
9
Games Played
10
1.11
Points/Game
1.20
1.11
Goals/Game
0.60
1.44
Conceded/Game
0.60
12.5
Shots/Game
11.1
3.8
Shots on Target
3.3
Home vs Away Context
Colchester at home (6 matches) vs Exeter away (7 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
0.57
1.00
Goals/Game
0.43
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
33%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Colchester
Home form
L
W
W
D
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Exeter
Away form
L
L
L
L
W
Lost 4 of last 5 away
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Colchester Wins
1
Draws
1
Exeter Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.2
Exeter2 – 0Colchester
Colchester3 – 1Exeter
Colchester1 – 2Exeter
Exeter6 – 1Colchester
Exeter0 – 0Colchester
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Colchestervs
Exeter
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
0.60
1.40
Goals conceded / game
0.60
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
1/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
2/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.2%→Latest 47.0%−4.2 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.0%→Latest 51.8%−2.2 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Colchester's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?