Cheltenham vs Newport County Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Whaddon Road
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.55
Draw
3.43
Away Win
2.70
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Cheltenham
Newport County
Charlie McCann (Jake Evans) ⚽
5'
30'
🟨 Gerard Garner
38'
🟨 Michael Adu-Poku
Jake Evans 🟨
47'
K. Otchere 🟨
56'
57'
🟨 Matthew Smith
61'
• Harrison Biggins
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
6
Total Shots
15
1
Shots on Goal
2
1
Corner Kicks
5
12
Fouls
18
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Cheltenham (4-2-3-1)
W. Stanway
J. Tomkinson
P. Sweeney
J. Wilson
J. Shipley
B. Stevenson
F. Willcox
J. Evans
C. McCann
K. Otchere
A. Weimann
Newport County (4-2-3-1)
J. Wright
C. Norman
L. Jenkins
K. Cameron
Joe Thomas
M. Dibley-Dias
C. Brennan
M. Adu-Poku
H. Biggins
Y. Bamba
G. Garner
Player Ratings ?
Cheltenham
C. McCannM8.0
J. WilsonD7.3
P. SweeneyD7.2
Newport County
K. EteteF6.7
M. Adu-PokuM6.6
Joe ThomasD6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Cheltenham edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, Newport County edge defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Cheltenham slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Cheltenham stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Newport County stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Cheltenham stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Newport County have found no success in their last five away outings, recording three draws and two defeats without a single win, whereas Cheltenham have secured three victories from their last five home matches alongside one draw and a solitary setback. Cheltenham have scored in four of their last five home games but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same recent run at this venue. Cheltenham rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form, while Newport County rate stronger on defence. Cheltenham won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 18 April 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Newport County's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Cheltenham's implied win probability has fallen by 3.0 percentage points, while Newport County's implied win probability has risen by 3.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Cheltenham losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
62%
Newport County yellow cards after 75'
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Newport County
Newport County's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Newport County win as more likely than it did 4 days ago. Cheltenham remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Cheltenham win
Latest market chance 37.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
40.5% → 37.5%
−3.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.9% → 27.6%
−0.3 pts
Newport County win
Latest market chance 34.9%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
31.5% → 34.9%
+3.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Cheltenham
Draw
Newport County
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CheltenhamNewport County
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
12th
12
Games Played
12
1.50
Points/Game
1.25
1.75
Goals/Game
1.33
1.83
Conceded/Game
1.25
8.9
Shots/Game
12.1
3.2
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Cheltenham at home (7 matches) vs Newport County away (7 matches)
2.29
Points/Game
0.43
2.00
Goals/Game
0.86
1.43
Conceded/Game
1.57
71%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Cheltenham
Home form
W
D
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Newport County
Away form
L
L
D
D
D
Winless in last 5 away
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Cheltenham Wins
4
Draws
0
Newport County Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
Cheltenham1 – 0Newport County
Newport County0 – 2Cheltenham
Newport County0 – 3Cheltenham
Cheltenham3 – 2Newport County
Newport County1 – 0Cheltenham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Cheltenhamvs
Newport County
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.90
Goals conceded / game
1.00
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.7%→Latest 49.9%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 55.1%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?