Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Whaddon Road
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.23
Draw
3.43
Away Win
2.21
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 2
Match Events ?
Cheltenham
Fleetwood Town
11'
🟨 Adam Murphy
Jay Lynch ⚽ (OG)
17'
Ben Stevenson 🟨
20'
K. Otchere ⚽
25'
31'
🟨 Shaun Rooney
Jake Evans (Charlie McCann) ⚽
39'
50'
⚽ Ched Evans (Crispin McLean)
Jonathan Tomkinson 🟨
64'
65'
⚽ (P) Ched Evans
Stephen John Cotterill 🟨
65'
Freddie willcox ⚽
80'
89'
🟨 R. Bennett
Match Statistics ?
43%
Ball Possession
57%
10
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Goal
4
6
Corner Kicks
5
17
Fouls
11
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Cheltenham (4-1-4-1)
W. Stanway
J. Tomkinson
J. Wilson
P. Sweeney
F. Willcox
B. Stevenson
J. Evans
K. Otchere
C. McCann
J. Shipley
A. Weimann
Fleetwood Town (3-1-4-2)
J. Lynch
S. Rooney
R. Bennett
F. Potter
H. Neal
L. McCann
A. Murphy
M. Helm
Jake Thomas Batty
R. Coughlan
W. Davies
Player Ratings ?
Cheltenham
J. EvansM7.5
K. OtchereM7.3
F. WillcoxD7.2
Fleetwood Town
C. EvansF8.2
C. McLeanM6.6
Jake Thomas BattyM6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Cheltenham edge recent form, Fleetwood Town edge defence, attack and head-to-head are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Cheltenham slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Fleetwood Town stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Cheltenham have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Fleetwood Town have managed just a single win in their corresponding away sample. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five matches at this venue but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Cheltenham hold a slight advantage in form, while Fleetwood Town rate stronger on defence, while attack and head-to-head are closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 10 March 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Cheltenham's implied win probability has fallen by 2.9 percentage points, while Fleetwood Town's implied win probability has risen by 3.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Fleetwood Town win as more likely than it did 2 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Cheltenham win
Latest market chance 29.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
32.8% → 29.9%
−2.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.9% → 27.7%
−0.2 pts
Fleetwood Town win
Latest market chance 42.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
39.4% → 42.4%
+3.0 pts
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CheltenhamFleetwood Town
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
12th
11
Games Played
11
1.36
Points/Game
1.27
1.55
Goals/Game
1.09
1.82
Conceded/Game
1.00
8.9
Shots/Game
15.1
3.2
Shots on Target
4.1
Home vs Away Context
Cheltenham at home (7 matches) vs Fleetwood Town away (7 matches)
2.29
Points/Game
0.71
2.00
Goals/Game
1.14
1.43
Conceded/Game
1.86
71%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Cheltenham
Home form
W
W
D
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Fleetwood Town
Away form
W
D
D
L
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Cheltenham Wins
2
Draws
1
Fleetwood Town Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.6
Fleetwood Town2 – 2Cheltenham
Cheltenham2 – 0Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town2 – 0Cheltenham
Cheltenham0 – 2Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town1 – 2Cheltenham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Cheltenhamvs
Fleetwood Town
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.90
Goals conceded / game
1.10
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.6%→Latest 51.4%−1.2 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.0%→Latest 56.1%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?