Bristol Rvs vs Swindon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Memorial Stadium
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.66
Draw
4.15
Away Win
4.70
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Bristol Rvs
Swindon
Kofi Balmer 🟨
37'
76'
🟨 Kaelan Majekodunmi
90+3'
🟨 Dan Butler
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
22
Total Shots
9
8
Shots on Goal
3
2
Corner Kicks
6
9
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
4
3
Goalkeeper Saves
8
Starting Lineups
Bristol Rvs (3-4-1-2)
Brad Young
K. Balmer
A. Kilgour
C. Kelly
T. James
C. Mola
R. Smallwood
J. Sparkes
S. Forde
F. Cavegn
J. Quigley
Swindon (4-3-3)
C. Ripley
M. Clark
K. Majekodunmi
S. Inwood
D. Butler
M. Virtue-Thick
J. Thomson
J. Ball
T. Nichols
A. Drinan
J. Snowdon
Player Ratings ?
Bristol Rvs
Brad YoungG7.1
A. KilgourD7.0
R. SmallwoodM7.0
Swindon
C. RipleyG8.2
A. DrinanF6.9
Joel McGregorD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Bristol Rvs edge attack and defence, Swindon edge head-to-head, recent form is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Bristol Rvs slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Bristol Rvs stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Swindon stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Bristol Rovers have enjoyed a solid run at home with three victories from their last five outings, while Swindon have struggled on the road with just one win in that same span away from home. The hosts have found the net in every single game at this venue over their last five matches, yet they have also kept three clean sheets during that identical period. Bristol Rvs rate stronger on defence, with a slight advantage in attack, while Swindon rate stronger on head-to-head, while form is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 28 February 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Bristol Rvs's implied win probability has fallen by 0.5 percentage points, while Swindon's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Bristol Rvs unbeaten run
45%
Swindon yellow cards after 75'
3
Swindon points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Swindon
Swindon's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Swindon win as more likely than it did 4 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Bristol Rvs remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Bristol Rvs win
Latest market chance 58.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
58.9% → 58.4%
−0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.4% → 22.7%
−0.7 pts
Swindon win
Latest market chance 18.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
17.7% → 18.8%
+1.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Bristol Rvs
Draw
Swindon
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Bristol RvsSwindon
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
15th
12
Games Played
12
1.25
Points/Game
1.25
1.33
Goals/Game
1.08
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.33
15.1
Shots/Game
10.4
4.4
Shots on Target
3.3
Home vs Away Context
Bristol Rvs at home (7 matches) vs Swindon away (7 matches)
1.86
Points/Game
0.71
1.57
Goals/Game
0.43
1.14
Conceded/Game
1.43
57%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Bristol Rvs
Home form
W
W
W
L
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Swindon
Away form
L
L
L
L
W
Lost 4 of last 5 away
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Bristol Rvs Wins
0
Draws
2
Swindon Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Swindon1 – 1Bristol Rvs
Bristol Rvs0 – 3Swindon
Swindon1 – 1Bristol Rvs
Bristol Rvs1 – 3Swindon
Bristol Rvs0 – 1Swindon
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Bristol Rvsvs
Swindon
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.50
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
3/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.9%→Latest 58.0%+4.1 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.8%→Latest 56.0%+3.2 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?