Barnet vs Swindon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The Hive Stadium
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.47
Draw
4.79
Away Win
5.99
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 3
Match Events ?
Barnet
Swindon
8'
⚽ Mitchell Clark (Aaron Drinan)
35'
⚽ Aaron Drinan (Matthew Virtue-Thick)
37'
⚽ Aaron Drinan (Jack Thomson)
Kabongo Tshimanga (Charlie Lakin) ⚽
90'
90+2'
🟨 Louis Millard
Match Statistics ?
72%
Ball Possession
28%
22
Total Shots
11
11
Shots on Goal
5
14
Corner Kicks
0
7
Fouls
6
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
11
Starting Lineups
Barnet (4-2-3-1)
M. Cox
A. Senior
D. Collinge
Z. Williams
N. Tavares
O. Gallagher
N. Ofoborh
B. Comley
C. Lakin
I. Kanu
K. Tshimanga
Swindon (3-4-2-1)
C. Ripley
K. Majekodunmi
S. Negru
S. Inwood
M. Clark
A. Munda
J. Thomson
B. Kirkman
M. Virtue-Thick
J. Snowdon
A. Drinan
Player Ratings ?
Barnet
C. LakinM7.7
K. TshimangaF7.4
Z. WilliamsD6.8
Swindon
A. DrinanF9.7
C. RipleyG8.5
J. ThomsonM7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Barnet
Barnet rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Swindon edge head-to-head, giving Barnet an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Barnet stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Barnet stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Barnet stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Swindon stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Swindon have struggled on the road with just a single draw from their last five away fixtures, whereas Barnet enjoy an impressive unbeaten record at home during that same span. The hosts have found the net in every one of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those same outings. Barnet rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Swindon rate stronger on head-to-head. Swindon won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 17 February 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Barnet's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Barnet's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points, while Swindon's implied win probability has fallen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Barnet.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Barnet
Barnet's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Barnet win as more likely than it did 2 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Barnet win
Latest market chance 63.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
62.2% → 63.6%
+1.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 20.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.0% → 20.5%
−0.5 pts
Swindon win
Latest market chance 15.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
16.8% → 15.9%
−0.9 pts
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BarnetSwindon
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
18th
9
Games Played
11
2.33
Points/Game
1.09
2.44
Goals/Game
0.91
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.36
15.5
Shots/Game
10.4
4.7
Shots on Target
3.3
Home vs Away Context
Barnet at home (8 matches) vs Swindon away (7 matches)
2.12
Points/Game
0.71
2.25
Goals/Game
0.43
1.38
Conceded/Game
1.43
62%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Barnet
Home form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Swindon
Away form
D
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
0.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
0/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Barnet Wins
2
Draws
0
Swindon Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.0
Barnet1 – 2Swindon
Swindon0 – 2Barnet
Barnet1 – 2Swindon
Swindon1 – 4Barnet
Barnet0 – 2Swindon
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Barnetvs
Swindon
Recent Scoring Profile
2.50
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.50
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
10/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
0/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.0%→Latest 62.8%+0.8 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.2%→Latest 57.8%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?