Accrington vs Northampton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The Crown Ground
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.23
Draw
3.22
Away Win
3.43
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Accrington
Northampton
Charlie Warren (Tyler Walton) ⚽
5'
46'
🟨 M. Warhurst
66'
🟨 Elliott Moore
Stefan Mols 🟨
75'
90+2'
⚽ Elliott List (Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh)
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
17
Total Shots
7
4
Shots on Goal
3
4
Corner Kicks
6
14
Fouls
14
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Accrington (3-4-1-2)
L. Moulden
D. Matthews
F. Rawson
J. Anderson
D. Love
Aidan Borland
Stefan Mols
D. Tutonda
Alex Henderson
T. Walton
C. Warren
Northampton (4-4-2)
Z. Jeacock
J. Donacien
E. Moore
J. Guthrie
J. Maxwell
J. Wormleighton
C. Lemonheigh-Evans
L. Evans
O. Dale
Matthew Warhurst
S. Hoskins
Player Ratings ?
Accrington
C. WarrenF7.8
Aidan BorlandM6.8
F. RawsonD6.7
Northampton
E. ListF8.2
Z. JeacockG6.7
J. MaxwellD6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Accrington edge recent form and attack, defence and head-to-head are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Accrington stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Accrington stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Northampton have recorded just one win from their last five away matches, while Accrington enjoy an encouraging unbeaten run at home with three victories in that same span. Accrington have found the net in four of their last five home outings, though they have only managed two clean sheets during that identical period. Accrington rate stronger on form and attack, while defence and head-to-head are closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2021. Over the 5-day comparison window, Accrington's implied win probability has risen by 1.6 percentage points, while Northampton's implied win probability has fallen by 1.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Accrington
Accrington's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Accrington win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Accrington win
Latest market chance 43.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
42.0% → 43.6%
+1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.0% → 28.9%
−0.1 pts
Northampton win
Latest market chance 27.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
29.0% → 27.5%
−1.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Accrington
Draw
Northampton
10 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AccringtonNorthampton
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
19th
13
Games Played
11
1.38
Points/Game
1.18
1.69
Goals/Game
0.73
1.23
Conceded/Game
0.73
15.4
Shots/Game
11.5
5.0
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Accrington at home (7 matches) vs Northampton away (6 matches)
1.86
Points/Game
1.00
1.86
Goals/Game
0.83
1.14
Conceded/Game
1.00
43%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Accrington
Home form
D
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Northampton
Away form
L
D
L
D
W
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Accrington Wins
1
Draws
2
Northampton Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.0
Accrington0 – 0Northampton
Northampton0 – 1Accrington
Northampton1 – 0Accrington
Accrington1 – 1Northampton
Accrington1 – 5Northampton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Accringtonvs
Northampton
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
0.80
0.90
Goals conceded / game
0.80
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
0/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 44.8%→Latest 44.3%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.8%→Latest 50.3%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?