Accrington vs Gillingham Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The Crown Ground
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.38
Draw
3.56
Away Win
2.84
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Accrington
Gillingham
Devon matthews 🟨
6'
Stefan Mols ⚽
11'
Donald Love 🟨
19'
21'
🟨 Harry Waldock
Josh Woods (Stefan Mols) ⚽
28'
31'
⚽ (OG) Devon matthews
33'
🟨 Armani Little
Josh Woods (Stefan Mols) ⚽
66'
79'
🟨 Ronan Chapman Hale
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
21
Total Shots
6
7
Shots on Goal
0
11
Corner Kicks
1
8
Fouls
15
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Accrington (3-4-1-2)
L. Moulden
D. Love
D. Matthews
J. Anderson
C. O'Brien
Aidan Borland
Stefan Mols
D. Tutonda
J. Woods
T. Walton
C. Warren
Gillingham (3-4-3)
O. Wright
A. Smith
O. Beckles
L. Dobbs
N. Freeman
R. McKenzie
A. Little
J. Brophy
H. Waldock
L. Sillah
Ronan Hale
Player Ratings ?
Accrington
J. WoodsM9.0
Stefan MolsM8.9
C. GrantM6.7
Gillingham
L. SillahF6.6
L. DobbsD6.5
T. EavesF6.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Accrington edge attack, Gillingham edge recent form and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Gillingham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Accrington slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Gillingham stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Gillingham have secured two wins from their last five away outings, while Accrington remain unbeaten at home with three draws in that same span. Accrington have scored in four of their last five home matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that identical period. Gillingham rate stronger on form and head-to-head, while Accrington hold a slight advantage in attack, while defence is closely matched. Gillingham won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 6 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Accrington's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Accrington's implied win probability has fallen by 1.1 percentage points, while Gillingham's implied win probability has risen by 0.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Accrington
Accrington's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Accrington win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Accrington win
Latest market chance 40.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
41.6% → 40.5%
−1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.4% → 26.9%
+0.5 pts
Gillingham win
Latest market chance 32.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
31.9% → 32.6%
+0.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Accrington
Draw
Gillingham
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AccringtonGillingham
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
4th
10
Games Played
10
1.10
Points/Game
1.60
1.30
Goals/Game
1.50
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.00
15.4
Shots/Game
9.8
5.0
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
Accrington at home (7 matches) vs Gillingham away (7 matches)
1.86
Points/Game
1.57
1.86
Goals/Game
1.71
1.14
Conceded/Game
1.43
43%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Accrington
Home form
D
D
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Gillingham
Away form
D
D
W
L
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Accrington Wins
1
Draws
2
Gillingham Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Gillingham2 – 0Accrington
Accrington1 – 1Gillingham
Accrington1 – 1Gillingham
Gillingham1 – 2Accrington
Accrington1 – 2Gillingham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Accringtonvs
Gillingham
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
3/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.9%→Latest 48.0%−1.9 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.4%→Latest 52.8%−1.6 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?