Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
League One
Stevenage
VS
Milton Keynes Dons
Broadhall Way
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.99
Draw
3.39
Away Win
4.03
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Stevenage
Milton Keynes Dons
7'
🟨 Alex Gilbey
Josh Magennis 🟨
9'
25'
🟨 Aaron Collins
Carl Piergianni 🟨
35'
44'
🟨 Jack Sanders
81'
⚽ Sam Nombe (Aaron Collins)
Match Statistics ?
60%
Ball Possession
40%
10
Total Shots
11
2
Shots on Goal
4
7
Corner Kicks
9
9
Fouls
13
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Stevenage (4-4-1-1)
T. Setford
L. James-Wildin
T. Vancooten
C. Piergianni
S. Earley
D. Kemp
L. Thompson
D. Phillips
B. Broggio
M. Mellon
J. Magennis
Milton Keynes Dons (3-1-4-2)
W. Dennis
M. Ekpiteta
C. Goode
J. Sanders
R. Wintle
S. Silvera
D. Crowley
A. Gilbey
Elijah Xavier Campbell
S. Nombe
A. Collins
Player Ratings ?
Stevenage
D. KempM7.0
O. SandersonF6.8
K. CaseyD6.7
Milton Keynes Dons
S. NombeF8.1
C. GoodeD7.9
A. CollinsF7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Stevenage
Stevenage rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Milton Keynes Dons edge head-to-head, giving Stevenage a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stevenage stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Stevenage stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Stevenage stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Milton Keynes Dons stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Stevenage have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Milton Keynes Dons have managed only a single win in their corresponding away sample. The Lilywhites have found the net in every one of their last five home matches yet have kept a clean sheet just twice during that same period. Stevenage rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Milton Keynes Dons rate stronger on head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2019. Over the 3-day comparison window, Stevenage's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points, while Milton Keynes Dons's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Stevenage a slight edge.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Stevenage
Stevenage's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Stevenage win as less likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Stevenage win
Latest market chance 46.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
48.5% → 46.9%
−1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.3% → 27.9%
+0.6 pts
Milton Keynes Dons win
Latest market chance 25.2%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
24.1% → 25.2%
+1.1 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
4 snapshots
+3+1.50−1.5Oct 21Oct 22Oct 23Oct 24
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Stevenage
Draw
Milton Keynes Dons
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Stevenage
Milton Keynes Dons
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
20th
10
Games Played
10
1.50
Points/Game
0.90
1.50
Goals/Game
1.10
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.80
11.3
Shots/Game
14.9
3.9
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Stevenage at home (6 matches) vs Milton Keynes Dons away (6 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
1.00
1.50
Goals/Game
1.17
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.67
50%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Stevenage
Home form
L
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Milton Keynes Dons
Away form
D
L
D
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Stevenage Wins
1
Draws
1
Milton Keynes Dons Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.8
2019-03-162018-2019
Milton Keynes Dons1 – 1Stevenage
2018-11-242018-2019
Stevenage3 – 2Milton Keynes Dons
2014-03-222013-2014
Stevenage2 – 3Milton Keynes Dons
2013-09-282013-2014
Milton Keynes Dons4 – 1Stevenage
2013-04-272012-2013
Stevenage0 – 2Milton Keynes Dons
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Stevenage
vs
Milton Keynes Dons
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.70
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
69.3%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
46.1%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
26.5%
BTTSBoth teams score
50.3%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.2%→Latest 46.1%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
7 common bookmakers · first comparable 3 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 50.1%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 3 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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