Sheffield Weds vs AFC Wimbledon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Hillsborough Stadium
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.66
Draw
4.23
Away Win
4.76
Match Report
Full Time
5 – 0
Match Events ?
Sheffield Weds
AFC Wimbledon
Barry Bannan (Davis Keillor-Dunn) ⚽
38'
Davis Keillor-Dunn ⚽
39'
Harry Gray (Jamal Lowe) ⚽
45'
Reece James 🟨
49'
Callum Slattery (Reece James) ⚽
56'
Jaden Heskey 🟨
60'
70'
🟨 Andy Yiadom
Davis Keillor-Dunn (Kieran Morrison) ⚽
85'
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
25
Total Shots
7
11
Shots on Goal
0
2
Corner Kicks
4
7
Fouls
13
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Sheffield Weds (4-2-3-1)
A. Maynard-Brewer
Y. Valery
D. Bernard
L. Cooper
R. James
Jaden Heskey
B. Bannan
D. Keillor-Dunn
C. Slattery
H. Gray
J. Lowe
AFC Wimbledon (5-4-1)
J. Bursik
A. Yiadom
S. Sessegnon
S. Seddon
R. Johnson
A. Sasu
C. Maycock
O. Harrison
A. Smith
M. Hippolyte
J. Stockley
Player Ratings ?
Sheffield Weds
D. Keillor-DunnM9.8
B. BannanM8.2
C. SlatteryM8.2
AFC Wimbledon
J. BursikG6.7
O. HarrisonM6.4
H. CornickF6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Sheffield Weds
Sheffield Weds rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Sheffield Weds a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sheffield Weds stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sheffield Weds stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sheffield Weds stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sheffield Weds stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sheffield Weds have secured two victories and drawn twice in their last five home outings, whereas AFC Wimbledon have managed just a single win alongside one draw from their corresponding away fixtures. The Blades have found the net in only two of their previous five home matches while maintaining three clean sheets during that same period. Sheffield Weds rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Sheffield Weds won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 2 April 2022, having won 1 of the last 2 encounters to AFC Wimbledon's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.5 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Sheffield Weds a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sheffield Weds win
Latest market chance 56.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
56.0% → 56.2%
+0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.5% → 23.5%
±0.0 pts
AFC Wimbledon win
Latest market chance 20.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.5% → 20.3%
−0.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sheffield Weds
Draw
AFC Wimbledon
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Sheffield WedsAFC Wimbledon
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
12th
8
Games Played
9
1.88
Points/Game
1.33
1.88
Goals/Game
0.78
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.11
15.3
Shots/Game
10.9
5.7
Shots on Target
2.7
Home vs Away Context
Sheffield Weds at home (8 matches) vs AFC Wimbledon away (7 matches)
1.38
Points/Game
0.57
1.88
Goals/Game
0.86
0.75
Conceded/Game
2.43
25%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sheffield Weds
Home form
L
W
D
D
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
AFC Wimbledon
Away form
L
L
W
D
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sheffield Weds Wins
1
Draws
1
AFC Wimbledon Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.5
Sheffield Weds2 – 1AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon2 – 2Sheffield Weds
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sheffield Wedsvs
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
0.70
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.40
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
3/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.1%→Latest 56.2%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.0%→Latest 55.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Sheffield Weds's 10 matches and 1 of AFC Wimbledon's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?