Notts County vs Sheffield Weds Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Meadow Lane
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.25
Draw
3.49
Away Win
2.22
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Notts County
Sheffield Weds
15'
🟨 Callum Slattery
Luka Smyth 🟨
34'
D. Kanu ⚽ (P)
38'
Conor·Grant 🟨
45+2'
50'
🟥 Jamal Lowe
Darius Lipsiuc (Rory Finneran) ⚽
81'
89'
🟨 Jaden Heskey
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
19
Total Shots
6
4
Shots on Goal
0
4
Corner Kicks
0
21
Fouls
17
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
3
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Notts County (3-4-2-1)
J. Gibbons
L. Ness
R. McDonald
J. Bedeau
N. Tsaroulla
R. Finneran
S. Robertson
I. Samuels-Smith
L. Smyth
C. Grant
D. Kanu
Sheffield Weds (4-2-3-1)
A. Maynard-Brewer
Y. Valery
D. Bernard
L. Cooper
R. James
B. Bannan
Jaden Heskey
C. Slattery
D. Keillor-Dunn
H. Gray
J. Lowe
Player Ratings ?
Notts County
D. LipsiucM7.9
R. FinneranM7.7
J. BedeauD7.5
Sheffield Weds
B. MitchellM6.7
H. GrayM6.5
K. MorrisonM6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Sheffield Weds
Sheffield Weds rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Sheffield Weds a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sheffield Weds stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sheffield Weds stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sheffield Weds stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sheffield Weds stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sheffield Weds arrive with an impressive away record of four wins and a draw from their last five fixtures, whereas Notts County have managed just two victories alongside one draw and two defeats in the same period at home. At home, Notts County have scored in four of their last five matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical sample. Sheffield Weds rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2012. Over the 2-day comparison window, Notts County's implied win probability has fallen by 2.0 percentage points, while Sheffield Weds's implied win probability has risen by 2.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Sheffield Weds a strong edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
13
Sheffield Weds points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Notts County
Notts County's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Notts County win as less likely than it did 2 days ago. Sheffield Weds remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Notts County win
Latest market chance 29.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
31.6% → 29.6%
−2.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.3% → 27.3%
±0.0 pts
Sheffield Weds win
Latest market chance 43.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
41.1% → 43.1%
+2.0 pts
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Notts CountySheffield Weds
Season Profile
This season
23rd
League Position
6th
9
Games Played
9
0.78
Points/Game
2.00
0.89
Goals/Game
2.22
1.44
Conceded/Game
0.89
11.8
Shots/Game
15.3
3.2
Shots on Target
5.7
Home vs Away Context
Notts County at home (6 matches) vs Sheffield Weds away (6 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
1.67
1.17
Goals/Game
1.33
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
33%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Notts County
Home form
W
D
W
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sheffield Weds
Away form
W
W
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Notts County Wins
1
Draws
1
Sheffield Weds Wins
3
Avg Goals
1.8
Notts County1 – 2Sheffield Weds
Sheffield Weds2 – 1Notts County
Sheffield Weds0 – 1Notts County
Notts County0 – 2Sheffield Weds
Notts County0 – 0Sheffield Weds
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Notts Countyvs
Sheffield Weds
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
2.10
1.60
Goals conceded / game
0.90
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.0%→Latest 52.6%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.3%→Latest 57.2%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
1 of Notts County's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?