Notts County vs Oxford Head to Head | League One

Match Report

Full Time

1 – 2

Match Events

Notts County

Oxford

Rod McDonald 🟨

18'

⚽ Mark Harris

Oliver Cooper 🟨

23'

44'

🟨 Louie Sibley

Max Sanders 🟨

47'

Jacob Bedeau 🟨

58'

Rory Finneran 🟨

70'

Lucas Ness 🟨

77'

82'

🟨 Peter Kioso

87'

🟨 Michał Helik

88'

⚽ Cameron Brannagan (Luka Lynch)

Rory Finneran (Nicholas Tsaroulla) ⚽

90+1'

Match Statistics

48%

Ball Possession

52%

Total Shots

Shots on Goal

Corner Kicks

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

Offsides

Goalkeeper Saves

Starting Lineups

Notts County (3-4-2-1)

J. Gibbons

L. Ness

R. McDonald

J. Bedeau

J. Gibbons

O. Cooper

M. Palmer

I. Samuels-Smith

C. Roberts

C. Grant

D. Kanu

Oxford (4-2-3-1)

J. Cumming

P. Kioso

M. Helik

C. Brown

J. Currie

T. Goodrham

C. Brannagan

M. Missanga

L. Sibley

S. Dembélé

M. Harris

Player Ratings

Notts County

R. FinneranM7.2

M. SandersM6.4

L. SmythF6.3

Oxford

C. BrannaganM8.2

M. HarrisF7.9

B. SpencerD7.0

Before Kickoff

Match Prediction

Data favours

Oxford

Oxford rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Oxford a slight edge.

Leads 4 of 4 major categories

Statistical Edge

No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong

How They Compare

Recent Form

Oxford stronger

HomeAway

Attack

Oxford stronger

HomeAway

Defence

Oxford slightly stronger

HomeAway

Head-to-Head

Oxford stronger

HomeAway

Match Analysis

Oxford arrive at Meadow Park with a formidable away record, boasting four victories from their last five outings across both seasons, whereas Notts County have found it harder to replicate that consistency at home, managing just two wins alongside one draw and two defeats in their own recent five-game sample. Notts County have been active on the attack at Meadow Park, scoring in four of their last five matches, yet they have failed to keep a single clean sheet during that same period. Oxford rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2016. Over the 13-day comparison window, Notts County's implied win probability has risen by 3.6 percentage points, while Oxford's implied win probability has fallen by 3.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Oxford a slight edge.

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Strong shift away from Oxford

Oxford's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Oxford win as less likely than it did 13 days ago. Notts County remain the clear market favourite.

Movement strength: Strong

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Notts County win

Latest market chance 37.2%

Strong shortening

Market chance increased

33.6% → 37.2%

+3.6 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 28.0%

Steady

Market view unchanged

28.0% → 28.0%

±0.0 pts

Oxford win

Latest market chance 34.8%

Strong drift

Market chance decreased

38.5% → 34.8%

−3.7 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

14 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Notts County

Draw

Oxford

5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Notts County

Oxford

Season Profile

This season

20th

League Position

10th

Games Played

1.00

Points/Game

1.83

1.00

Goals/Game

2.17

1.29

Conceded/Game

1.17

11.8

Shots/Game

14.1

3.2

Shots on Target

5.0

Home vs Away Context

Notts County at home (6 matches) vs Oxford away (6 matches)

1.33

Points/Game

1.83

1.17

Goals/Game

1.83

1.00

Conceded/Game

1.17

33%

Win Rate

50%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Notts County

Home form

2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home

2 of these matches from last season.

1.2

Goals scored
per match

1.4

Goals conceded
per match

4/5

Scored in
last 5

0/5

Clean
sheets

Oxford

Away form

Won 4 of last 5 away

2 of these matches from last season.

2.6

Goals scored
per match

1.0

Goals conceded
per match

5/5

Scored in
last 5

2/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

Notts County Wins

Draws

Oxford Wins

Avg Goals

3.2

2016-01-022015-2016

Notts County2 – 4Oxford

2015-08-182015-2016

Oxford3 – 1Notts County

2006-03-182005-2006

Notts County0 – 0Oxford

2005-12-262005-2006

Oxford3 – 0Notts County

2005-04-092004-2005

Oxford2 – 1Notts County

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Notts County

Oxford

Recent Scoring Profile

1.10

Goals scored / game

1.90

1.60

Goals conceded / game

0.90

5/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

6/10

8/10

Both Teams Scored

6/10

2/10

Failed to Score

0/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

72.4%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

48.5%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

27.7%

BTTSBoth teams score

53.9%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 50.0%→Latest 48.4%−1.6 pts

Notable move away from 3+ goals

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

3 common bookmakers · first comparable 13 days before kickoff

Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 54.7%→Latest 53.6%−1.1 pts

Slight move away from both teams scoring

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

4 common bookmakers · first comparable 13 days before kickoff

The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.

3 of Notts County's 10 matches and 2 of Oxford's 10 matches are from last season.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

Notts County vs Oxford Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis