Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Head to Head | League One

Match Prediction

Data favours

Milton Keynes Dons

Milton Keynes Dons rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Milton Keynes Dons a slight edge.

Leads 3 of 4 major categories

Statistical Edge

No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong

How They Compare

Recent Form

Milton Keynes Dons stronger

HomeAway

Attack

Milton Keynes Dons stronger

HomeAway

Defence

Closely matched

HomeAway

Head-to-Head

Milton Keynes Dons stronger

HomeAway

Match Analysis

Milton Keynes Dons have enjoyed a strong run at home with four wins from their last five outings, whereas Burton have struggled on the road with just one win and one draw in their last five away matches. The hosts have found the net in all of their last five home games but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Milton Keynes Dons rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 7 May 2023, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.4 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Milton Keynes Dons's implied win probability has fallen by 2.3 percentage points, while Burton's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Milton Keynes Dons a slight edge.

Pre-Match Context

Notable Numbers

3/5

One-goal H2H results

Milton Keynes Dons points from last 5 matches

Team Availability

Milton Keynes Dons

No current absences reported

Burton

No current absences reported

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Notable shift away from Milton Keynes Dons

Milton Keynes Dons's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Milton Keynes Dons win as less likely than it did 13 days ago.

Movement strength: Notable

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Milton Keynes Dons win

Latest market chance 56.2%

Notable drift

Market chance decreased

58.5% → 56.2%

−2.3 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 23.9%

Slight shortening

Market chance increased

23.0% → 23.9%

+0.9 pts

Burton win

Latest market chance 19.9%

Slight shortening

Market chance increased

18.5% → 19.9%

+1.4 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

13 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Milton Keynes Dons

Draw

Burton

4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Milton Keynes Dons

Burton

Season Profile

This season

12th

League Position

15th

Games Played

1.38

Points/Game

1.21

1.69

Goals/Game

1.29

1.54

Conceded/Game

1.50

14.9

Shots/Game

11.3

4.0

Shots on Target

3.6

Home vs Away Context

Milton Keynes Dons at home (8 matches) vs Burton away (7 matches)

1.88

Points/Game

1.00

2.38

Goals/Game

0.86

1.38

Conceded/Game

1.57

50%

Win Rate

29%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Milton Keynes Dons

Home form

Won 3 straight at home

3.4

Goals scored
per match

1.8

Goals conceded
per match

5/5

Scored in
last 5

0/5

Clean
sheets

Burton

Away form

Lost 3 of last 5 away

0.6

Goals scored
per match

1.6

Goals conceded
per match

2/5

Scored in
last 5

1/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

Milton Keynes Dons Wins

Draws

Burton Wins

Avg Goals

1.4

2023-05-072022-2023

Burton0 – 0Milton Keynes Dons

2022-12-032022-2023

Milton Keynes Dons1 – 1Burton

2022-01-252021-2022

Burton0 – 1Milton Keynes Dons

2021-11-202021-2022

Milton Keynes Dons1 – 0Burton

2021-03-202020-2021

Burton1 – 2Milton Keynes Dons

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Milton Keynes Dons

Burton

Recent Scoring Profile

2.20

Goals scored / game

1.00

1.50

Goals conceded / game

1.60

6/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

6/10

7/10

Both Teams Scored

5/10

2/10

Failed to Score

4/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

78.2%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

57.0%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

36.3%

BTTSBoth teams score

56.5%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 57.3%→Latest 57.0%−0.3 pts

Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot

3 common bookmakers · first comparable 13 days before kickoff

Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 55.0%→Latest 56.3%+1.3 pts

Slight move towards both teams scoring

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

4 common bookmakers · first comparable 13 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis