Mansfield vs Oxford Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Field Mill
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.26
Draw
3.70
Away Win
3.06
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Mansfield
Oxford
Nathan Daniel Moriah-Welsh 🟨
14'
22'
🟨 Peter Kioso
34'
⚽ Luka Lynch (Siriki Dembele)
Jonathan Russell 🟨
54'
72'
🟨 Gatlin O Donkor
75'
🟥 Peter Kioso
Michael Smith ⚽
82'
84'
🟥 Gatlin O Donkor
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
24
Total Shots
7
4
Shots on Goal
2
11
Corner Kicks
3
13
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
2
2
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Mansfield (3-1-4-2)
L. Roberts
E. Hewitt
A. Oshilaja
R. Sweeney
L. Reed
N. Moriah-Welsh
J. Russell
G. Abbott
L. Thompson
M. Smith
R. Oates
Oxford (4-2-3-1)
J. Cumming
P. Kioso
M. Helik
C. Brown
B. Spencer
C. Brannagan
L. Sibley
L. Lynch
Kai Andrews
S. Dembélé
M. Harris
Player Ratings ?
Mansfield
M. SmithF7.8
L. ReedM7.2
S. McLaughlinD7.2
Oxford
L. LynchM7.5
C. BrownD7.4
S. DembéléM7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Oxford edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Oxford stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Oxford stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Oxford stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Oxford have secured four victories from their last five away outings, while Mansfield remain unbeaten at home with four wins and a draw in that same span. Mansfield have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that period. Oxford rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2016. Over the 5-day comparison window, Mansfield's implied win probability has risen by 4.8 percentage points, while Oxford's implied win probability has fallen by 4.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Mansfield
Mansfield's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Mansfield win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Mansfield win
Latest market chance 41.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
36.9% → 41.7%
+4.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.0% → 26.4%
−0.6 pts
Oxford win
Latest market chance 31.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
36.1% → 31.9%
−4.2 pts
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MansfieldOxford
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
8th
8
Games Played
7
1.38
Points/Game
2.00
1.50
Goals/Game
2.14
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.14
14.2
Shots/Game
14.1
4.2
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Mansfield at home (6 matches) vs Oxford away (6 matches)
1.83
Points/Game
1.83
1.67
Goals/Game
1.83
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.17
50%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Mansfield
Home form
W
W
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Oxford
Away form
W
W
L
W
W
Won 4 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Mansfield Wins
1
Draws
2
Oxford Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Oxford2 – 2Mansfield
Mansfield1 – 1Oxford
Oxford3 – 0Mansfield
Mansfield2 – 1Oxford
Oxford3 – 0Mansfield
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Mansfieldvs
Oxford
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.80
Goals conceded / game
0.90
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 15 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.7%→Latest 53.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.6%→Latest 57.6%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
1 of Mansfield's 10 matches and 1 of Oxford's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?