Luton vs Leicester Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Kenilworth Road
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.27
Draw
4.01
Away Win
2.82
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Luton
Leicester
Nahki Wells (Jordan Clark) ⚽
39'
68'
🟨 John Lundstram
85'
🟥 John Lundstram
90'
⚽ Liam Cullen (Emil Riis Jakobsen)
90+3'
🟨 Wes Burns
Callum Marshall ⚽
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
42%
Ball Possession
58%
11
Total Shots
11
8
Shots on Goal
5
9
Corner Kicks
8
8
Fouls
11
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
3
Offsides
3
4
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Luton (4-1-4-1)
J. Shea
I. Jones
M. Andersen
G. Johnston
K. Naismith
L. Walsh
T. Mendel-Idowu
J. Clark
J. Donley
K. Palmer
N. Wells
Leicester (3-4-2-1)
A. McCarthy
W. O'Hora
H. Souttar
C. Okoli
W. Alves
J. Lundstram
L. Page
L. Thomas
S. Braybrooke
K. Doyle
E. Riis
Player Ratings ?
Luton
N. WellsF7.7
J. ClarkM7.6
C. MarshallF7.5
Leicester
L. CullenF7.8
A. McCarthyG7.7
W. O'HoraD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Luton edge head-to-head, Leicester edge recent form and attack, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Leicester stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Leicester slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Luton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Leicester have enjoyed an impressive unbeaten run in their last five away fixtures with two wins and three draws, while Luton are slightly less consistent at home with just one defeat in that same span. Luton have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have only managed a solitary clean sheet during that period. Leicester rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack, while Luton rate stronger on head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2007. Over the 4-day comparison window, Luton's implied win probability has fallen by 2.4 percentage points, while Leicester's implied win probability has risen by 2.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Leicester
Leicester's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Leicester win as more likely than it did 4 days ago. Luton remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Luton win
Latest market chance 42.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
44.8% → 42.4%
−2.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.8% → 24.7%
−0.1 pts
Leicester win
Latest market chance 32.9%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
30.4% → 32.9%
+2.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Luton
Draw
Leicester
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LutonLeicester
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
10th
10
Games Played
10
1.40
Points/Game
1.50
1.90
Goals/Game
1.60
1.80
Conceded/Game
1.50
14.6
Shots/Game
15.5
5.1
Shots on Target
5.5
Home vs Away Context
Luton at home (8 matches) vs Leicester away (6 matches)
2.12
Points/Game
1.50
1.88
Goals/Game
1.83
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.17
62%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Luton
Home form
W
D
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Leicester
Away form
D
D
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Luton Wins
2
Draws
2
Leicester Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
Leicester1 – 1Luton
Luton2 – 0Leicester
Luton1 – 2Leicester
Leicester0 – 2Luton
Leicester1 – 1Luton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Lutonvs
Leicester
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.8%→Latest 62.9%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.9%→Latest 64.6%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?