AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Plough Lane
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.30
Draw
3.56
Away Win
2.17
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 3
Match Events ?
AFC Wimbledon
Mansfield
22'
⚽ Michael Smith (Stephen McLaughlin)
27'
⚽ Michael Smith (Stephen McLaughlin)
42'
🟨 Adedeji Oshilaja
Andy Yiadom 🟨
45+1'
Ryan Johnson 🟨
69'
73'
⚽ Jonathan Russell (Michael Smith)
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
13
Total Shots
13
2
Shots on Goal
6
9
Corner Kicks
6
9
Fouls
11
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
AFC Wimbledon (5-4-1)
J. Bursik
A. Yiadom
F. Simmonds
R. Johnson
S. Seddon
A. Sasu
C. Maycock
Z. Nelson
A. Smith
M. Hippolyte
J. Stockley
Mansfield (3-1-4-2)
L. Roberts
J. Bowery
A. Oshilaja
R. Sweeney
L. Reed
N. Moriah-Welsh
G. Abbott
L. Thompson
S. McLaughlin
M. Smith
J. Russell
Player Ratings ?
AFC Wimbledon
J. TilleyF7.2
H. CornickF6.9
A. SmithM6.5
Mansfield
M. SmithF9.7
J. RussellF8.2
S. McLaughlinM7.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. AFC Wimbledon edge defence and head-to-head, Mansfield edge recent form and attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Mansfield stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Mansfield stronger
HomeAway
Defence
AFC Wimbledon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
AFC Wimbledon stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
AFC Wimbledon have secured two victories from their last five outings at home, while Mansfield have recorded no wins in their corresponding away sample of five matches. AFC Wimbledon have found the net in two of their last five home fixtures and kept four clean sheets in that same span. Mansfield rate stronger on form and attack, while AFC Wimbledon rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. The most recent meeting, on 28 February 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, AFC Wimbledon's implied win probability has fallen by 3.8 percentage points, while Mansfield's implied win probability has risen by 4.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Mansfield
Mansfield's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Mansfield win as more likely than it did 2 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
AFC Wimbledon win
Latest market chance 29.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
33.0% → 29.2%
−3.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.8% → 27.5%
−0.3 pts
Mansfield win
Latest market chance 43.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
39.2% → 43.3%
+4.1 pts
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AFC WimbledonMansfield
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
13th
10
Games Played
9
1.20
Points/Game
1.33
0.70
Goals/Game
1.44
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.67
10.9
Shots/Game
14.2
2.7
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
AFC Wimbledon at home (6 matches) vs Mansfield away (8 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.12
0.50
Goals/Game
1.25
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.38
33%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
AFC Wimbledon
Home form
L
D
W
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Mansfield
Away form
L
L
L
D
D
Winless in last 5 away
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
AFC Wimbledon Wins
1
Draws
3
Mansfield Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
Mansfield2 – 2AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon0 – 0Mansfield
AFC Wimbledon2 – 1Mansfield
Mansfield0 – 0AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon1 – 3Mansfield
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
AFC Wimbledonvs
Mansfield
Recent Scoring Profile
0.70
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.50
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.2%→Latest 52.5%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.0%→Latest 57.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?