Villarreal vs Elche Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio de la Cerámica
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.46
Draw
5.06
Away Win
6.49
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Villarreal
Elche
38'
🟨 Gonzalo Villar
71'
🟨 Tete Morente
75'
🟨 Roy Revivo
Alex Freeman 🟨
81'
90+1'
🟨 Víctor Chust
Juan Foyth 🟨
90+1'
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
20
Total Shots
7
7
Shots on Goal
1
10
Corner Kicks
5
12
Fouls
7
2
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
6
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Villarreal (4-4-2)
P. Gulácsi
A. Freeman
J. Foyth
Logan Costa
Sergi Cardona
Ilias Akhomach
Santi Comesaña
C. Macia
Alberto Moleiro
Ayoze Pérez
T. Oluwaseyi
Elche (5-3-2)
M. Dituro
Buba Sangaré
J. Morcillo
Víctor Chust
R. Revivo
Germán Valera
Gonzalo Villar
Marc Aguado
T. Lemar
A. Osorio
L. Cepeda
Player Ratings ?
Villarreal
Logan CostaD7.3
J. FoythD7.1
Sergi CardonaD7.0
Elche
M. DituroG7.9
J. MorcilloD7.1
T. LemarM7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Villarreal edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Villarreal slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Villarreal stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Villarreal stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Elche have secured just a solitary victory in their last five away outings, while Villarreal sit with two wins from their last five home fixtures. Villarreal have found the net in all of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same span. The hosts face two confirmed absences, whereas Elche will be missing one player with another listed as doubtful. Villarreal rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form, while defence is closely matched. Villarreal won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 8 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Elche's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 8-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Villarreal losing run
64%
Villarreal yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 8 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Villarreal win
Latest market chance 65.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
64.6% → 65.0%
+0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 20.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.1% → 20.1%
±0.0 pts
Elche win
Latest market chance 14.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
15.3% → 14.8%
−0.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Villarreal
Draw
Elche
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
VillarrealElche
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
18th
8
Games Played
8
1.00
Points/Game
0.75
1.62
Goals/Game
1.38
1.62
Conceded/Game
2.12
16.8
Shots/Game
12.0
5.9
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Villarreal at home (8 matches) vs Elche away (8 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.62
1.00
Goals/Game
1.62
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.75
25%
Win Rate
38%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Villarreal
Home form
L
W
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Elche
Away form
D
D
L
D
W
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Villarreal Wins
3
Draws
0
Elche Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.2
Villarreal2 – 1Elche
Elche1 – 3Villarreal
Elche3 – 1Villarreal
Villarreal4 – 0Elche
Elche1 – 0Villarreal
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Villarrealvs
Elche
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.80
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 64.3%→Latest 64.5%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.7%→Latest 58.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Villarreal's 10 matches and 2 of Elche's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?