Vallecano vs Elche Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio de Vallecas
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.78
Draw
3.88
Away Win
4.63
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 3
Match Events ?
Vallecano
Elche
10'
🟨 Javier Morcillo Rodrigálvarez
23'
⚽ (P) Federico Redondo Solari
30'
🟨 Gonzalo Villar
30'
🟨 Federico Redondo Solari
Pathé Ciss 🟨
35'
36'
⚽ (P) Fernando Niño Rodríguez
Pathé Ciss •
39'
Adrià Pedrosa 🟨
54'
68'
⚽ Germán Valera (Facundo Buonanotte)
Álvaro García 🟨
81'
Match Statistics ?
57%
Ball Possession
43%
18
Total Shots
16
5
Shots on Goal
9
3
Corner Kicks
3
15
Fouls
11
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
2
6
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Vallecano (4-3-3)
E. Audero
I. Balliu
F. Lejeune
Mujaid Sadick
Adrià Pedrosa
Pedro Díaz
P. Ciss
Unai López
Jorge de Frutos
Sergio Camello
Álvaro García
Elche (4-3-3)
M. Dituro
Buba Sangaré
F. Redondo
Víctor Chust
R. Revivo
Gonzalo Villar
J. Morcillo
T. Lemar
L. Cepeda
Fer Niño
Germán Valera
Player Ratings ?
Vallecano
Unai LópezM7.2
E. AuderoG6.7
G. BouareM6.7
Elche
M. DituroG7.9
Germán ValeraF7.9
R. RevivoD7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Vallecano edge recent form and attack, Elche edge head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Vallecano stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Vallecano stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Elche slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Vallecano have secured three wins from their last five home outings without a defeat, while Elche have recorded just one victory in their last five away fixtures. The hosts have scored in all five of their most recent home matches but have only kept a single clean sheet during that same span. Vallecano face potential disruptions with two players out and another two doubtful, whereas Elche have just one player unavailable for selection. Vallecano rate stronger on form and attack, while Elche hold a slight advantage in head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Vallecano won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 3 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Elche's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 12-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Elche losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 12 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Vallecano win
Latest market chance 54.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
54.0% → 54.1%
+0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.9% → 25.0%
+0.1 pts
Elche win
Latest market chance 20.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.0% → 20.9%
−0.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Vallecano
Draw
Elche
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
VallecanoElche
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
18th
8
Games Played
9
1.13
Points/Game
0.78
1.50
Goals/Game
1.22
2.12
Conceded/Game
1.89
14.4
Shots/Game
12.0
4.8
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Vallecano at home (7 matches) vs Elche away (8 matches)
1.86
Points/Game
1.62
1.71
Goals/Game
1.62
1.43
Conceded/Game
0.75
57%
Win Rate
38%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Vallecano
Home form
D
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Elche
Away form
L
D
W
D
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Vallecano Wins
2
Draws
0
Elche Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.0
Vallecano1 – 0Elche
Elche4 – 0Vallecano
Elche4 – 0Vallecano
Vallecano2 – 1Elche
Elche2 – 1Vallecano
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Vallecanovs
Elche
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.90
Goals conceded / game
1.70
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
10/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.6%→Latest 52.4%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.2%→Latest 53.6%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Vallecano's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?