Vallecano vs Celta Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Estadio de Vallecas
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.53
Draw
3.19
Away Win
3.08
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Vallecano
Celta
Unai López 🟨
26'
Jorge De Frutos (Sergio Camello) ⚽
36'
Jorge De Frutos (Andrei Rațiu) ⚽
55'
Gnangoro Bouare 🟨
72'
Unai López (Gnangoro Bouare) ⚽
73'
82'
🟨 Williot Swedberg
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
14
Total Shots
11
8
Shots on Goal
0
4
Corner Kicks
3
11
Fouls
16
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
0
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Vallecano (4-3-3)
E. Audero
A. Rațiu
F. Lejeune
Mujaid Sadick
Adrià Pedrosa
Pedro Díaz
Óscar Valentín
Unai López
Jorge de Frutos
Sergio Camello
Álvaro García
Celta (3-4-3)
I. Radu
Javi Rodríguez
Yoel Lago
S. Cáceres
Javi Rueda
I. Moriba
Aleix Febas
Javi Galán
Hugo Álvarez
Ferran Jutglà
Hugo González
Player Ratings ?
Vallecano
Jorge de FrutosF9.1
Unai LópezM8.2
A. RațiuD7.4
Celta
I. RaduG6.8
W. SwedbergF6.7
Pablo DuránF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Vallecano edge attack, Celta edge recent form and defence, head-to-head is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Celta slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Vallecano stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Celta stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Celta arrives with a perfectly drawn record from their last five away outings, while Vallecano have secured two wins and suffered two defeats in their corresponding home sample. Vallecano have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same span. The hosts face two confirmed absences and one doubtful case, whereas Celta are dealing with five players out of their squad. Celta rate stronger on defence, with a slight advantage in form, while Vallecano rate stronger on attack, while head-to-head is closely matched. Celta won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 18 January 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Vallecano's 2, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Vallecano's implied win probability has fallen by 3.9 percentage points, while Celta's implied win probability has risen by 3.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Vallecano
Vallecano's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Vallecano win as less likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Vallecano win
Latest market chance 39.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
43.7% → 39.8%
−3.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
28.3% → 29.1%
+0.8 pts
Celta win
Latest market chance 31.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
28.0% → 31.2%
+3.2 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
13 snapshots
+4+20−2Oct 19Oct 22Oct 25Oct 28Oct 31
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Vallecano
Draw
Celta
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Vallecano
Celta
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
9th
9
Games Played
10
1.00
Points/Game
1.20
1.33
Goals/Game
1.00
2.22
Conceded/Game
0.70
14.4
Shots/Game
10.9
4.8
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
Vallecano at home (7 matches) vs Celta away (6 matches)
1.86
Points/Game
0.67
1.71
Goals/Game
0.17
1.43
Conceded/Game
1.17
57%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Vallecano
Home form
D
W
W
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Celta
Away form
D
D
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Vallecano Wins
2
Draws
2
Celta Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
2026-01-182025-2026
Celta3 – 0Vallecano
2025-09-212025-2026
Vallecano1 – 1Celta
2025-05-182024-2025
Celta1 – 2Vallecano
2025-01-102024-2025
Vallecano2 – 1Celta
2024-03-312023-2024
Celta0 – 0Vallecano
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Vallecano
vs
Celta
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.00
2.20
Goals conceded / game
0.70
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
69.5%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
44.7%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
25.1%
BTTSBoth teams score
51.3%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.6%→Latest 45.5%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Oct 19Oct 22Oct 25Oct 28Oct 31
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 12 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 51.3%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 12 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
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