Valencia vs Villarreal Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio de Mestalla
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.22
Draw
3.68
Away Win
2.21
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Valencia
Villarreal
Daniel Raba Antolín 🟨
34'
37'
🟨 Renato Veiga
José Luis García Vayá ⚽ (P)
38'
43'
🟨 Ayoze Pérez
59'
🟨 Tajon Buchanan
Pablo Maffeo 🟨
60'
Guido Rodríguez 🟨
62'
69'
⚽ Alex Freeman (Sergi Cardona Bermúdez)
79'
🟥 Pape Gueye
Harvey Elliott 🟨
89'
Harvey Elliott 🟥
89'
90+6'
⚽ Georges Mikautadze (Alberto Moleiro)
Match Statistics ?
38%
Ball Possession
62%
9
Total Shots
19
5
Shots on Goal
3
6
Corner Kicks
9
18
Fouls
9
3
Yellow Cards
3
1
Red Cards
1
2
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Valencia (4-4-2)
S. Dimitrievski
Pablo Maffeo
César Tárrega
J. de Haas
José Gayà
David Otorbi
G. Rodríguez
Pepelu
Luis Rioja
Javi Guerra
A. Danjuma
Villarreal (4-4-2)
P. Gulácsi
S. Mouriño
J. Foyth
Renato Veiga
A. Freeman
Ilias Akhomach
C. Macia
P. Gueye
T. Buchanan
Gerard Moreno
Ayoze Pérez
Player Ratings ?
Valencia
Hugo DuroF6.8
José GayàD6.7
PepeluM6.6
Villarreal
G. MikautadzeF7.8
A. FreemanD7.2
P. GulácsiG7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Villarreal
Villarreal rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Villarreal a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Villarreal stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Villarreal stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Villarreal stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Villarreal stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Valencia head into this La Liga clash at home with a poor record of two draws and three defeats in their last five outings, while visitors Villarreal have secured just one win from the same number of away matches. The hosts have managed to score in only one of their last five home games and have kept two clean sheets during that identical span. Valencia face a significant challenge with five players unavailable, whereas Villarreal can field a squad missing just two individuals. Villarreal rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Villarreal won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 22 February 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Valencia's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Valencia's implied win probability has risen by 2.5 percentage points, while Villarreal's implied win probability has fallen by 3.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Villarreal a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Valencia losing run
69%
Villarreal yellow cards after 75'
2
Valencia points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Villarreal
Villarreal's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Villarreal win as less likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Valencia win
Latest market chance 29.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
27.2% → 29.7%
+2.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
25.7% → 26.6%
+0.9 pts
Villarreal win
Latest market chance 43.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
47.1% → 43.6%
−3.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Valencia
Draw
Villarreal
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ValenciaVillarreal
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
12th
9
Games Played
9
0.67
Points/Game
1.00
0.67
Goals/Game
1.44
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.44
9.8
Shots/Game
16.8
2.8
Shots on Target
5.9
Home vs Away Context
Valencia at home (10 matches) vs Villarreal away (8 matches)
0.30
Points/Game
1.38
0.40
Goals/Game
1.38
1.90
Conceded/Game
1.25
0%
Win Rate
38%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Valencia
Home form
L
L
L
D
D
Winless in last 5 at home
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Villarreal
Away form
D
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Valencia Wins
0
Draws
2
Villarreal Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.0
Villarreal2 – 1Valencia
Valencia0 – 2Villarreal
Villarreal1 – 1Valencia
Valencia1 – 1Villarreal
Villarreal1 – 0Valencia
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Valenciavs
Villarreal
Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.20
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
6/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.9%→Latest 54.0%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.6%→Latest 58.5%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?