Valencia vs Real Madrid Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio de Mestalla
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
11.00
Draw
6.67
Away Win
1.25
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 3
Match Events ?
Valencia
Real Madrid
Pablo Maffeo 🟨
26'
28'
⚽ Federico Valverde
36'
⚽ Arda Güler
45'
🟨 Andriy Lunin
Guido Rodríguez 🟨
50'
Javier Aguirre Onaindía 🟨
59'
75'
⚽ Kylian Mbappé (Arda Güler)
José Gayà 🟥
79'
Luis Rioja 🟨
80'
80'
🟨 Yan Diomande
José Luis García Vayá 🟨
81'
81'
🟨 Kylian Mbappé
Match Statistics ?
32%
Ball Possession
68%
4
Total Shots
19
2
Shots on Goal
11
2
Corner Kicks
5
26
Fouls
6
4
Yellow Cards
3
1
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
5
8
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Valencia (5-3-2)
S. Dimitrievski
Pablo Maffeo
Pepelu
César Tárrega
J. de Haas
José Gayà
Javi Guerra
G. Rodríguez
Aaron Mayol
U. Sadiq
A. Danjuma
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1)
T. Courtois
F. Valverde
I. Konaté
D. Huijsen
Marc Cucurella
Bernardo Silva
A. Tchouaméni
A. Güler
J. Bellingham
Y. Diomande
Kylian Mbappé
Player Ratings ?
Valencia
S. DimitrievskiG6.6
A. DanjumaF6.4
Aimar BlázquezF6.3
Real Madrid
A. GülerM9.0
F. ValverdeD8.1
Kylian MbappéF7.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Real Madrid
Real Madrid rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Real Madrid a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Real Madrid have secured three victories from their last five away fixtures, whereas Valencia have endured two defeats and two draws in their corresponding home outings over the same period. At home, Valencia have found the net in three of their last five matches but have also conceded in three of those same outings, managing just two clean sheets during that span. Real Madrid rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Real Madrid won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 8 February 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Valencia's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Valencia's implied win probability has fallen by 4.7 percentage points, while Real Madrid's implied win probability has risen by 7.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Real Madrid a strong edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Valencia losing run
2
Valencia points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Real Madrid
Real Madrid's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Real Madrid win as more likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Valencia win
Latest market chance 8.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
13.3% → 8.6%
−4.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 15.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
18.5% → 15.2%
−3.3 pts
Real Madrid win
Latest market chance 76.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
68.3% → 76.2%
+7.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Valencia
Draw
Real Madrid
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ValenciaReal Madrid
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
3rd
11
Games Played
11
0.82
Points/Game
2.45
0.73
Goals/Game
2.55
1.55
Conceded/Game
0.91
9.8
Shots/Game
17.4
2.8
Shots on Target
7.3
Home vs Away Context
Valencia at home (10 matches) vs Real Madrid away (8 matches)
0.30
Points/Game
2.25
0.40
Goals/Game
2.12
1.90
Conceded/Game
0.88
0%
Win Rate
75%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Valencia
Home form
L
D
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 at home
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Real Madrid
Away form
L
W
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Valencia Wins
1
Draws
1
Real Madrid Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.2
Valencia0 – 2Real Madrid
Real Madrid4 – 0Valencia
Real Madrid1 – 2Valencia
Valencia1 – 2Real Madrid
Valencia2 – 2Real Madrid
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Valenciavs
Real Madrid
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
2.30
1.50
Goals conceded / game
0.80
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
4/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 66.2%→Latest 65.5%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.1%→Latest 50.5%−7.6 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?