Valencia vs Ath Bilbao Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio de Mestalla
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.22
Draw
3.35
Away Win
2.36
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Valencia
Ath Bilbao
Daniel Raba Antolín 🟨
19'
38'
🟨 Aymeric Laporte
42'
🟨 Beñat Gerenabarrena
57'
🟨 Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta
José Luis García Vayá 🟨
87'
César Tárrega Requeni 🟨
90'
Match Statistics ?
37%
Ball Possession
63%
16
Total Shots
9
3
Shots on Goal
2
2
Corner Kicks
6
14
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Valencia (4-2-3-1)
S. Dimitrievski
Pablo Maffeo
César Tárrega
J. de Haas
José Gayà
Pepelu
G. Rodríguez
Dani Raba
Javi Guerra
A. Danjuma
Hugo Duro
Ath Bilbao (4-2-3-1)
Unai Simón
Hugo Rincón
Aitor Paredes
Aymeric Laporte
J. Louis-Jean
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Ruíz de Galarreta
Álex Berenguer
Peio Canales
Robert Navarro
I. Williams
Player Ratings ?
Valencia
PepeluM7.2
José GayàD7.1
S. DimitrievskiG7.0
Ath Bilbao
Aymeric LaporteD7.1
Aitor ParedesD7.0
Hugo RincónD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Valencia edge head-to-head, Ath Bilbao edge defence, recent form and attack are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Ath Bilbao stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Valencia stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Valencia sit at home having recorded just one win from their last five outings, while visitors Ath Bilbao have managed two victories in their away fixtures over the same span. At home, Valencia have scored in only two of their last five matches and kept just a single clean sheet during that period. Valencia carry three unavailable players alongside three others in doubt, whereas Ath Bilbao have three confirmed out and one player listed as doubtful for the fixture. Ath Bilbao rate stronger on defence, while Valencia rate stronger on head-to-head, while form and attack are closely matched. Valencia won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 10 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Ath Bilbao's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.2 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Valencia's implied win probability has risen by 2.5 percentage points, while Ath Bilbao's implied win probability has fallen by 3.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Valencia losing run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Ath Bilbao win as less likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Valencia win
Latest market chance 29.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
27.2% → 29.7%
+2.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
27.5% → 29.0%
+1.5 pts
Ath Bilbao win
Latest market chance 41.3%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
45.2% → 41.3%
−3.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Valencia
Draw
Ath Bilbao
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ValenciaAth Bilbao
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
10th
8
Games Played
6
0.63
Points/Game
1.33
0.75
Goals/Game
1.17
1.88
Conceded/Game
1.00
9.8
Shots/Game
14.9
2.8
Shots on Target
4.1
Home vs Away Context
Valencia at home (10 matches) vs Ath Bilbao away (8 matches)
0.30
Points/Game
0.88
0.40
Goals/Game
0.75
1.90
Conceded/Game
1.25
0%
Win Rate
12%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Valencia
Home form
W
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Ath Bilbao
Away form
L
L
L
W
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Valencia Wins
3
Draws
0
Ath Bilbao Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.2
Ath Bilbao0 – 1Valencia
Valencia2 – 0Ath Bilbao
Valencia0 – 1Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao1 – 0Valencia
Valencia1 – 0Ath Bilbao
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Valenciavs
Ath Bilbao
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.90
Goals conceded / game
1.60
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
4/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.2%→Latest 45.4%−1.8 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 51.8%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
2 of Valencia's 10 matches and 3 of Ath Bilbao's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?