Santander vs Valencia Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
El Sardinero
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.22
Draw
3.57
Away Win
3.29
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Santander
Valencia
2'
⚽ Daniel Raba Antolín (Justin De Haas)
Pablo Ramon Parra 🟨
22'
Yassir Zabiri (Iñigo Vicente) ⚽
32'
45+2'
🟨 Guido Rodríguez
Jorge Salinas Viadero 🟨
45+2'
45+4'
🟨 Daniel Raba Antolín
Iván Martín ⚽
47'
65'
⚽ David Otorbi Ejededawe (Javi Guerra)
72'
🟨 Pablo Maffeo
Iván Martín 🟨
90+2'
Match Statistics ?
54%
Ball Possession
46%
20
Total Shots
10
11
Shots on Goal
2
8
Corner Kicks
3
15
Fouls
10
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
9
Starting Lineups
Santander (4-1-4-1)
Julen Agirrezabala
Álvaro Mantilla
Pablo Ramón
J. Belocian
Jorge Salinas
M. Prati
Sergio Canales
Iván Martín
André Almeida
Iñigo Vicente
M. Zabiri
Valencia (5-4-1)
S. Dimitrievski
Pablo Maffeo
M. Diakhaby
Pepelu
J. de Haas
José Gayà
Dani Raba
F. Ugrinic
G. Rodríguez
Javi Guerra
Hugo Duro
Player Ratings ?
Santander
Iván MartínM8.0
M. ZabiriF8.0
Iñigo VicenteM7.7
Valencia
David OtorbiF8.2
S. DimitrievskiG7.5
Dani RabaM7.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Santander edge attack, Valencia edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Valencia slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Santander stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Valencia stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Valencia stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Valencia have secured three victories in their last five away outings, whereas Santander have recorded two wins and a draw from their corresponding home sample. Santander have scored in four of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet within that same recent run. The hosts face just one absence, while Valencia are dealing with four confirmed absences alongside one player listed as doubtful. Valencia rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form, while Santander rate stronger on attack. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2012. Over the 14-day comparison window, Santander's implied win probability has fallen by 6.6 percentage points, while Valencia's implied win probability has risen by 5.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Santander
Santander's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Santander win as less likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Santander win
Latest market chance 42.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
48.6% → 42.0%
−6.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
25.8% → 27.1%
+1.3 pts
Valencia win
Latest market chance 30.9%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
25.6% → 30.9%
+5.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Santander
Draw
Valencia
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SantanderValencia
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
20th
7
Games Played
7
1.00
Points/Game
0.57
1.57
Goals/Game
0.57
3.00
Conceded/Game
1.86
12.9
Shots/Game
9.8
4.8
Shots on Target
2.8
Home vs Away Context
Santander at home (7 matches) vs Valencia away (5 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.40
1.86
Goals/Game
1.00
1.71
Conceded/Game
1.20
57%
Win Rate
40%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Santander
Home form
L
L
D
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Valencia
Away form
W
W
L
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Santander Wins
0
Draws
3
Valencia Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Santander2 – 2Valencia
Valencia4 – 3Santander
Santander1 – 1Valencia
Valencia1 – 0Santander
Valencia0 – 0Santander
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Santandervs
Valencia
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.20
2.80
Goals conceded / game
1.80
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.9%→Latest 56.6%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.3%→Latest 58.9%+2.6 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Santander's 10 matches and 3 of Valencia's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?