Santander vs Real Madrid Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
El Sardinero
Sun 01 Nov 2026 · 15:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
10.35
Draw
7.95
Away Win
1.22
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 3
Match Events ?
Santander
Real Madrid
11'
⚽ (P) Kylian Mbappé
21'
⚽ Jude Bellingham (Arda Güler)
Jeanuël Belocian 🟨
34'
36'
⚽ Yan Diomande
Iker Luque 🟨
45+1'
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
10
Total Shots
22
1
Shots on Goal
7
4
Corner Kicks
6
10
Fouls
8
2
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
5
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Santander (4-2-3-1)
Julen Agirrezabala
Álvaro Mantilla
Pablo Ramón
J. Belocian
Aarón Martín
Iván Martín
M. Prati
Iker Luque
Sergio Canales
Iñigo Vicente
M. Zabiri
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1)
T. Courtois
T. Alexander-Arnold
D. Huijsen
I. Konaté
Marc Cucurella
A. Tchouaméni
Bernardo Silva
A. Güler
J. Bellingham
Y. Diomande
Kylian Mbappé
Player Ratings ?
Santander
Julen AgirrezabalaG6.8
M. PratiM6.7
Iñigo VicenteM6.6
Real Madrid
J. BellinghamM8.2
Y. DiomandeM8.1
Kylian MbappéF7.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Real Madrid
Real Madrid rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Real Madrid an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Real Madrid slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Santander arrive at home with an impressive unbeaten run from their last five outings, while Real Madrid have recorded three wins and two defeats in their away fixtures during the same period. The hosts have scored in every one of their last five matches at home but have failed to keep a single clean sheet in that sequence. Santander face just one confirmed absence ahead of the clash, whereas Real Madrid are dealing with four players ruled out for selection. Real Madrid rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2012. Over the 13-day comparison window, Santander's implied win probability has fallen by 1.3 percentage points, while Real Madrid's implied win probability has risen by 2.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Real Madrid.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Real Madrid
Real Madrid's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Real Madrid win as more likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Santander win
Latest market chance 8.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
10.2% → 8.9%
−1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 13.1%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
13.9% → 13.1%
−0.8 pts
Real Madrid win
Latest market chance 78.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
75.8% → 78.1%
+2.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Santander
Draw
Real Madrid
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SantanderReal Madrid
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
3rd
10
Games Played
10
1.10
Points/Game
2.40
1.50
Goals/Game
2.50
2.60
Conceded/Game
1.00
12.9
Shots/Game
17.4
4.8
Shots on Target
7.3
Home vs Away Context
Santander at home (7 matches) vs Real Madrid away (8 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
2.25
1.86
Goals/Game
2.12
1.71
Conceded/Game
0.88
57%
Win Rate
75%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Santander
Home form
W
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Real Madrid
Away form
W
L
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Santander Wins
0
Draws
1
Real Madrid Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.4
Real Madrid4 – 0Santander
Santander0 – 0Real Madrid
Santander1 – 3Real Madrid
Real Madrid6 – 1Santander
Santander0 – 2Real Madrid
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Santandervs
Real Madrid
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
2.40
2.50
Goals conceded / game
0.90
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 76.0%→Latest 78.7%+2.7 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.0%→Latest 63.1%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?