Real Madrid vs Villarreal Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.36
Draw
6.09
Away Win
7.28
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Real Madrid
Villarreal
10'
🟨 Renato Veiga
Jude Bellingham 🟨
19'
Yan Diomande (Federico Valverde) ⚽
62'
José Mário dos Santos Mourinho Félix 🟨
68'
Vinícius 🟥
72'
Ibrahima Konaté 🟨
81'
Antonio Rüdiger 🟨
83'
84'
🟨 Pau Navarro
Aurelien Tchouameni 🟨
87'
Kylian Mbappé 🟨
90+3'
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
11
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Goal
4
9
Corner Kicks
3
8
Fouls
13
5
Yellow Cards
2
1
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1)
T. Courtois
T. Alexander-Arnold
I. Konaté
A. Rüdiger
Álvaro Fernández
F. Valverde
A. Tchouaméni
A. Güler
J. Bellingham
Y. Diomande
Kylian Mbappé
Villarreal (4-2-3-1)
P. Gulácsi
A. Freeman
Pau Navarro
Renato Veiga
Sergi Cardona
J. Foyth
P. Gueye
Ilias Akhomach
Santi Comesaña
Alberto Moleiro
Ayoze Pérez
Player Ratings ?
Real Madrid
Y. DiomandeM8.2
F. ValverdeM7.7
T. CourtoisG7.7
Villarreal
A. FreemanD7.3
N. SalibaM7.0
P. GueyeM6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Real Madrid
Real Madrid rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Real Madrid an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Real Madrid have been perfect at home with five wins from their last five outings, while Villarreal have found away form difficult with just one win and two draws in their last five matches. The hosts have scored in every home game over the last five matches but have kept only two clean sheets during that same span. Real Madrid will be without four players while Villarreal face just one absence ahead of this La Liga fixture. Real Madrid rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Real Madrid won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 24 January 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Villarreal's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 22-day comparison window, Real Madrid's implied win probability has fallen by 6.3 percentage points, while Villarreal's implied win probability has risen by 3.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Real Madrid.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Villarreal losing run
67%
Villarreal yellow cards after 75'
15
Real Madrid points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Real Madrid
Real Madrid's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Real Madrid win as less likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Real Madrid win
Latest market chance 69.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
75.4% → 69.9%
−5.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 16.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
14.4% → 16.8%
+2.4 pts
Villarreal win
Latest market chance 13.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
10.2% → 13.4%
+3.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Real Madrid
Draw
Villarreal
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Real MadridVillarreal
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
9th
7
Games Played
7
2.14
Points/Game
1.14
2.57
Goals/Game
1.86
1.14
Conceded/Game
1.71
17.4
Shots/Game
16.8
7.3
Shots on Target
5.9
Home vs Away Context
Real Madrid at home (6 matches) vs Villarreal away (8 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.38
3.00
Goals/Game
1.38
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.25
100%
Win Rate
38%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Real Madrid
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
3.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Villarreal
Away form
L
D
D
L
W
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Real Madrid Wins
4
Draws
1
Villarreal Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.8
Villarreal0 – 2Real Madrid
Real Madrid3 – 1Villarreal
Villarreal1 – 2Real Madrid
Real Madrid2 – 0Villarreal
Villarreal4 – 4Real Madrid
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Real Madridvs
Villarreal
Recent Scoring Profile
2.50
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.80
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 74.7%→Latest 73.6%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.2%→Latest 64.5%+4.3 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Real Madrid's 10 matches and 3 of Villarreal's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?