Real Madrid vs Sevilla Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.24
Draw
7.10
Away Win
11.29
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Real Madrid
Sevilla
23'
🟨 Felix Correia
Dean Huijsen 🟨
23'
Arda Güler (Yan Diomande) ⚽
30'
Kylian Mbappé (Jude Bellingham) ⚽
37'
Kylian Mbappé ⚽ (P)
63'
69'
🟨 Juan Antonio Iglesias Sánchez
Marc Cucurella 🟨
73'
80'
⚽ Manuel Bueno Sebastián (Lucas Stassin)
Yan Diomande (Aurelien Tchouameni) ⚽
82'
Match Statistics ?
65%
Ball Possession
35%
15
Total Shots
11
8
Shots on Goal
5
1
Corner Kicks
2
10
Fouls
14
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1)
T. Courtois
F. Valverde
I. Konaté
D. Huijsen
Marc Cucurella
A. Güler
A. Tchouaméni
Endrick
J. Bellingham
Y. Diomande
Kylian Mbappé
Sevilla (4-2-3-1)
O. Vlachodimos
Juan Iglesias
Andrés Castrín
Kike Salas
G. Suazo
L. Agoumé
Y. Fofana
R. Vargas
Peque Fernández
Félix Correia
R. Ure
Player Ratings ?
Real Madrid
Y. DiomandeM9.0
A. GülerM8.2
Kylian MbappéF8.2
Sevilla
Manu BuenoM6.8
C. EjukeF6.7
L. StassinF6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Real Madrid
Real Madrid rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Real Madrid an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Real Madrid stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Real Madrid have secured five wins from their last five home outings, while Sevilla remain unbeaten in their last five away fixtures with two victories and three draws. At home, Real Madrid have scored in all five of their most recent matches but have kept just three clean sheets during that same period. Both squads carry concerns ahead of the match, with each side having three players out and one doubtful for selection. Real Madrid rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Real Madrid won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 17 May 2026, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to Sevilla's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Real Madrid's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points, while Sevilla's implied win probability has fallen by 0.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Real Madrid.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
50%
Sevilla yellow cards after 75'
15
Real Madrid points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Real Madrid
Real Madrid's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Real Madrid win as more likely than it did 9 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Real Madrid win
Latest market chance 76.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
75.2% → 76.3%
+1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 14.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
15.1% → 14.7%
−0.4 pts
Sevilla win
Latest market chance 9.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
9.6% → 9.0%
−0.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Real Madrid
Draw
Sevilla
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Real MadridSevilla
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
5th
8
Games Played
8
2.25
Points/Game
1.75
2.38
Goals/Game
1.62
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
17.4
Shots/Game
12.3
7.3
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away Context
Real Madrid at home (6 matches) vs Sevilla away (7 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.29
3.00
Goals/Game
1.86
0.50
Conceded/Game
2.14
100%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Real Madrid
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sevilla
Away form
W
D
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Real Madrid Wins
5
Draws
0
Sevilla Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.4
Sevilla0 – 1Real Madrid
Real Madrid2 – 0Sevilla
Sevilla0 – 2Real Madrid
Real Madrid4 – 2Sevilla
Real Madrid1 – 0Sevilla
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Real Madridvs
Sevilla
Recent Scoring Profile
2.40
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.60
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 68.5%→Latest 67.3%−1.2 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.9%→Latest 50.5%−3.4 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Real Madrid's 10 matches and 1 of Sevilla's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?