Osasuna vs Santander Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio El Sadar
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.98
Draw
3.80
Away Win
3.84
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Osasuna
Santander
6'
🟨 Alvaro Mantilla
Ante Budimir ⚽ (P)
9'
Valentin Rosier 🟨
28'
51'
🟨 Jorge Salinas Viadero
Ante Budimir 🟨
60'
80'
🟨 Iván Martín
Asier Osambela ⚽
88'
Match Statistics ?
44%
Ball Possession
56%
20
Total Shots
9
7
Shots on Goal
1
7
Corner Kicks
4
21
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Osasuna (4-3-3)
Aitor Fernández
V. Rosier
Catena
F. Boyomo
Abel Bretones
Moncayola
Iker Muñoz
Moi Gómez
Rubén García
A. Budimir
Jonathan Dubasin
Santander (4-2-3-1)
Julen Agirrezabala
Álvaro Mantilla
Pablo Ramón
J. Belocian
Jorge Salinas
Iván Martín
M. Prati
Sergio Canales
André Almeida
Iñigo Vicente
M. Zabiri
Player Ratings ?
Osasuna
Asier OsambelaM7.5
F. BoyomoD7.1
A. BudimirF7.0
Santander
Julen AgirrezabalaG7.7
Pablo GarcíaF6.8
Pablo RamónD6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Osasuna edge defence, Santander edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Santander stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Santander slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Osasuna stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Santander stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Santander arrive at this venue with a concerning away record of five straight defeats in their last five outings, while Osasuna have shown more resilience at home with just two losses in the same span. The hosts have found the net in three of their last five matches at home but have also kept two clean sheets during that identical period. Both squads carry minor injury concerns, with Osasuna facing four absences and Santander one absentee ahead of the fixture. Santander rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack, while Osasuna rate stronger on defence. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2015. Over the 9-day comparison window, Osasuna's implied win probability has fallen by 2.2 percentage points, while Santander's implied win probability has risen by 3.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Osasuna losing run
45%
Osasuna yellow cards after 75'
0
Santander points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Santander
Santander's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Santander win as more likely than it did 9 days ago. Osasuna remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Osasuna win
Latest market chance 48.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
50.3% → 48.1%
−2.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.0%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
26.8% → 26.0%
−0.8 pts
Santander win
Latest market chance 26.0%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
22.9% → 26.0%
+3.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Osasuna
Draw
Santander
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
OsasunaSantander
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
15th
8
Games Played
8
1.00
Points/Game
1.00
1.00
Goals/Game
1.62
2.25
Conceded/Game
2.88
11.2
Shots/Game
12.9
4.0
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Osasuna at home (7 matches) vs Santander away (7 matches)
1.43
Points/Game
0.86
0.86
Goals/Game
1.14
0.71
Conceded/Game
2.86
29%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Osasuna
Home form
L
D
W
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Santander
Away form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Osasuna Wins
2
Draws
0
Santander Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.2
Santander2 – 0Osasuna
Osasuna0 – 2Santander
Santander2 – 4Osasuna
Osasuna0 – 2Santander
Osasuna3 – 1Santander
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Osasunavs
Santander
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.60
2.10
Goals conceded / game
2.90
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.5%→Latest 58.6%+4.1 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.3%→Latest 60.8%+4.5 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Osasuna's 10 matches and 2 of Santander's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?