Osasuna vs Ath Bilbao Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio El Sadar
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.73
Draw
3.59
Away Win
2.06
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Osasuna
Ath Bilbao
Jon Moncayola 🟨
45+2'
Ante Budimir 🟨
54'
84'
⚽ Nico Williams
Alejandro Catena ⚽
90'
90+3'
🟨 Oihan Sancet
Iker Muñoz Cameros 🟨
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
17
Total Shots
16
5
Shots on Goal
4
6
Corner Kicks
4
19
Fouls
10
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Osasuna (4-3-3)
Aitor Fernández
V. Rosier
F. Boyomo
Catena
Abel Bretones
Moncayola
Lucas Torró
Moi Gómez
Rubén García
A. Budimir
Raul Moro
Ath Bilbao (4-2-3-1)
Unai Simón
Hugo Rincón
Dani Vivian
Aymeric Laporte
Yuri
Peio Canales
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Álex Berenguer
Robert Navarro
Nico Williams
I. Williams
Player Ratings ?
Osasuna
CatenaD7.4
V. RosierD7.2
Rubén GarcíaF7.0
Ath Bilbao
Nico WilliamsM7.7
Unai SimónG7.7
Aymeric LaporteD7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Ath Bilbao a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ath Bilbao stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Ath Bilbao slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Ath Bilbao stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ath Bilbao stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Osasuna have secured two victories from their last five outings at home, while visitors Athletic Bilbao have managed just a solitary win in their corresponding away sample over the same span. The home side have found the net in three of their last five matches but have also kept three clean sheets during that identical recent period. Ath Bilbao rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Ath Bilbao won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 21 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Osasuna's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Osasuna's implied win probability has fallen by 2.2 percentage points, while Ath Bilbao's implied win probability has risen by 2.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Ath Bilbao a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Ath Bilbao win as more likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Osasuna win
Latest market chance 26.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
28.3% → 26.1%
−2.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.3% → 27.9%
−0.4 pts
Ath Bilbao win
Latest market chance 46.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
43.4% → 46.0%
+2.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Osasuna
Draw
Ath Bilbao
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
OsasunaAth Bilbao
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
7th
11
Games Played
10
1.00
Points/Game
1.50
1.00
Goals/Game
1.40
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
11.2
Shots/Game
14.9
4.0
Shots on Target
4.1
Home vs Away Context
Osasuna at home (7 matches) vs Ath Bilbao away (8 matches)
1.43
Points/Game
0.88
0.86
Goals/Game
0.75
0.71
Conceded/Game
1.25
29%
Win Rate
12%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Osasuna
Home form
D
W
L
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Ath Bilbao
Away form
W
L
D
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Osasuna Wins
0
Draws
3
Ath Bilbao Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.0
Ath Bilbao1 – 0Osasuna
Osasuna1 – 1Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao0 – 0Osasuna
Osasuna1 – 2Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao2 – 2Osasuna
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Osasunavs
Ath Bilbao
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.40
2.50
Goals conceded / game
0.80
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
4/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.4%→Latest 45.2%−2.2 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.5%→Latest 50.5%−2.0 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?